Newswise — The more expensive an item, the more likely it is to be targeted by thieves and stolen, a report by a University of Warwick academic has revealed.

Report author Mirko Draca undertook the work for the Social Market Foundation. Called It's prices, stupid: Explaining falling crime rates in the UK – the study analyses monthly data over a 10-year period from the Metropolitan Police and the Office for National Statistics to try to establish a link between prices and crime.

And the findings show that the rise in the theft of goods such as mobile phones, bicycles, jewellery and the decline in audio equipment, TVs and DVDs taken from properties in London is indeed closely linked to price.

The research indicates that a 10% increase in prices is associated with a 3.5% increase in crime - showing criminals are quick to react to the changing value of consumer goods.

Dr Draca is based at the University’s Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE), a research centre with the Department of Economics. He said the findings suggest that "prices deserve serious further investigation as a main driver of crime across the UK".

He added: "The evidence presented here for London indicates that a strong relationship between prices and crime exists across a full range of goods.

"Falls in the value of key, commonly stolen goods appear to have driven down the returns to property crime."

The report also established that if criminals find it difficult or costly to adapt to and overcome technologies, such as Find My iPhone, this has the potential to kill off any theft incentives, as well as cost.

And the report said the police could look at predictive policing depending on market prices and whether they start to rise or fall - especially in the instance of items such as metals.

Established in January 2010, CAGE is carrying out a ten year programme of innovative research. The centre’s research programme is focused on how countries succeed in achieving key economic objectives such as improving living standards, raising productivity, and maintaining international competitiveness, which are central to the economic wellbeing of their citizens.

Notes to editors

About the Social Market Foundation:The Social Market Foundation (SMF) is an independent, non-partisan think tank. We believe that fair markets, complemented by open public services, increase prosperity and help people to live well. We conduct research and run events looking at a wide range of economic and social policy areas, focusing on economic prosperity, public services and consumer markets. The SMF is resolutely independent, and the range of backgrounds and opinions among our staff, trustees and advisory board reflects this. www.smf.co.uk

About CAGE:Established in January 2010, CAGE is a research centre in the Department of Economics at the University of Warwick. CAGE is carrying out a ten year programme of innovative research. The centre’s research programme is focused on how countries succeed in achieving key economic objectives such as improving living standards, raising productivity, and maintaining international competitiveness, which are central to the economic wellbeing of their citizens. Our research analyses the reasons for economic outcomes both in developed economies like the UK and emerging economies such as China and India. We aim to develop a better understanding of how to promote institutions and policies which are conducive to successful economic performance and endeavour to draw lessons for policy makers from economic history as well as the contemporary world. Research at CAGE examines how and why different countries achieve economic success. CAGE defines ‘success’ in terms of well-being as well as productivity. The research uses economic analysis to address real-world policy issues. The centre is distinctive in providing a perspective that draws on economic history as well as economic theory and is applied to countries at various different stages of economic development. www.warwick.ac.uk/cage

Other Link: It's prices, stupid: Explaining falling crime rates in the UK