John A. Bunge, an expert on the science of surveys and statistics and associate professor of social statistics at Cornell University’s ILR School, discusses the question of polling accuracy in the presidential race.
He says:
“Political polls are conducted with the utmost rigor, since both sides are directly interested in the results, whether pro or con. However, final poll results are subject to various assumptions, including models predicting patterns of likely voting.
“Poll readers should also note that reported percentages are accompanied by margin-of-error figures, meaning that pollsters are 95 percent sure that the true percentage is within the margin of error. “There is no reason to assume, and every reason not to assume, that poll results are manipulated in any way.”
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