As a result, many scientists believe, the earth's average temperature over the past 100 years has increased as much as 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit. The hottest year on record was 1998, according to NASA researchers, and, they say, 10 of the warmest years in the 20th century have occurred since 1985.
The warming trend is expected to continue. If left unchecked, United Nations climatologists predict, carbon dioxide concentrations could rise as much as 150 percent by 2100, driving up the earth's average temperature by two to six degrees Fahrenheit.
Increased flooding from rising sea levels or stronger storms could make water, sewage, and storm water systems obsolete, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Beach erosion could increase, pushing the cost of sand replenishment along California beaches, for example, to $3.5 billion a year in the next century. Important crops could migrate north, leaving American farmland barren.
And people will suffer. The EPA predicts that a three degree rise in average temperature could double heat related deaths in Chicago and Los Angeles.
By international treaty, the U.S. is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by 2008. But progress has been hampered by politically powerful industries such as oil producers and automakers. On the other side of the coin, a number of large insurance companies, worried about claims from the predicted increase in major storms, have joined the call to control global warming.
The migration of maple sugar trees seems like one of the more benign effects of global warming. But in Vermont, maple sugaring is a $20 million industry. In addition, the ski industry pumps about $750 million into the state economy. Weather is taken seriously.
In 1990, Burlington (pop. 40,000) was responsible for 509,000 tons of carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere. In 1997, that amount jumped to 624,000 tons, and, if left unchecked, the emissions will climb to 716,000 tons in 2005, according to the city's climate change task force.
In the draft of a recently released proposal, Burlington commits to a six percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The action plan calls for more energy efficiency in municipal buildings, a greater reliance on biomass fueled energy plants, and an aggressive public education effort called the Ten Percent Climate Challenge Campaign, which encourages businesses and homeowners to cut their own greenhouse gas emissions.
In Portland, Oregon, officials say that global warming worries are a basic concern. Mountain runoff supplies Portland's drinking water. The U.S. EPA predicts that just a little warming could speed the melting snow and cause water shortages in the late summer and early fall.
In 1993, Portland (pop. 500,000) became the first American city to adopt a local strategy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. It committed to chopping those emissions 20 percent by 2010.
Abby Young, the U.S. director of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), says her group provides local governments with technical assistance to analyze greenhouse gas emissions, adopt reduction targets, and draft plans to meet those goals. Portland was a pioneer, but slowly, nearly 70 other municipalities, including Chicago and Los Angeles, have joined the effort.
According to Gary Gero, air quality director for the city of Los Angeles, that city is just shy of reaching its goal of cutting emissions 10 percent. It has implemented a system of aggressive traffic monitoring and control; installed almost 250,000 highly efficient street and traffic lights; and retrofitted 800 city buildings to make them more energy efficient.
Chicago is cutting its emissions the green way. The city's Urban Heat Island Initiative is aimed at keeping downtown cooler. This pilot project is a combination of rooftop gardens (including one on city hall), median planting, and light colored roofing. Also, the city recently revised its landscape ordinance to increase the amount of green space built into parking lots and major developments.
The Rebuild Chicago program offers free energy audits to commercial and industrial businesses. It also provides grants to companies covering up to 25 percent of the cost of installing energy efficient lighting and as much as 50 percent of other energy efficient improvements. In addition, the city has retrofit 20 of its own buildings, saving $1 million a year in energy bills and cutting greenhouse gase emissions by over 7,600 tons.
--Planning magazine
--American Planning Association
This material was excerpted from a story in the May 2000 issue of "Planning" magazine; its author is George Homsy, executive producer of "The Cultivated Gardener," heard on public radio stations nationwide. Copyright by the author.
To download the full text, see http://www.planning.org/pubs/may00.htm.
Contact: Sylvia Lewis, editor and publisher of "Planning": [email protected].
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