CONTACT: James Elsner(850) 644-8374; [email protected]
By Jill ElishApril 2001
FSU CLIMATOLOGIST PREDICTS INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY
TALLAHASSEE, Fla.--The United States can expect 50 hurricanes -- 20 of them zeroing in on Florida's coasts -- to make landfall over the next 30 years, according to a new study by Florida State University climatologist James Elsner. Elsner predicts that 18 of the 50 will be considered major hurricanes.
Elsner predicts two hurricanes will make a U.S. landfall this year. One of those may be a Category 3 or higher, which means it would generate winds at more than 110 miles per hour, and it may hit Florida.
"Where it goes depends on a number of factors," he said. "I think it is more likely to hit Florida or the Gulf Coast than the East Coast based on climate changes."
His predictions put a finer point on his previous projection, which drew national attention last year, that the United States in the next three decades would see a return of conditions similar to those in the 1930s, '40s and '50s when several major hurricanes wreaked havoc along the coast from Texas to Maine.
Florida and the Gulf Coast may take the brunt of this increase in activity, according to Elsner, who found that the probability of observing more than 20 hurricanes over the next 30 years exceeds 40 percent for the Gulf Coast and Florida but is less than 10 percent for the East Coast.
Elsner, an associate professor of geography, presented his latest study at a conference earlier this month. The paper is currently under review by the Journal of Climate.
While there are other researchers who make hurricane predictions, Elsner's methodology is unique in that he looks at paleoclimate data, such as overwashed sand deposits, lake levels and tree rings, to identify prehistoric hurricanes and establish cyclical trends. He also looks at historical and observational records of hurricane activity over the past 150 years. He combines all the data and uses a complex statistical method to arrive at his predictions.
The result is a more "rigorous, scientific and reproducible" approach to predicting hurricanes more precisely, Elsner said, adding that the historical research he has done can be referenced and analyzed for years to come.
It is important to establish that history because, as Elsner noted, memories are often short.
"We often judge what's going to happen to us based on very limited past experience, and if the short-term past indicated only a slight risk of hurricanes, we can grow complacent about the real risk," Elsner said. "What I try to do is say here's the best guess of your risk of being hit, and you may have to update your perceived risk. That certainly is important for emergency management people who must prepare a community or the whole state."
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