Hurricane Experts at FSU

By Jeffery Seay [email protected]

April 6, 2001

FSU HURRICANE EXPERTS AT FSU SEASON STARTS JUNE 1

Hurricane season starts June 1 and experts from Florida State University and its world renowned meterology program are available to answer media questions and give perspective to news stories as the season unfolds. Among them:

* James Elsner, associate professor of geography, is an expert on hurricanes, chaos and predictability. He has recently developed a model with FSU statistics Associate Professor Xufeng Niu and FSU statistics alumnus Thomas Jagger that analyzes the probability of hurricane winds in coastal counties from Texas to North Carolina. In 2000, Elsner predicted an increased likelihood of major hurricanes striking the U.S. Gulf Coast in the next 10 to 20 years. His research is funded by the National Science Foundation and the Risk Prediction Initiative, a consortium of reinsurance companies. Contact Elsner at (850) 644-8374, or e-mail [email protected].

* Tiruvalam Krishnamurti, a meteorology professsor, and Eric Williford, a Ph.D. candidate, developed the Super Ensemble hurricane prediction technique in 1999 that yields more accurate long-range track and intensity forecasts than other techniques. Krishnamurti is an international expert in the computer modeling of tropical meteorology and numerical weather prediction and is the director of the FSU Cooperative Institute of Tropical Meteorology. In 1999, he became one of the few Americans ever to win the International Meteorological Organization Prize, the world's top meteorology award. Williford is a research assistant in the FSU Real Time Hurricane Forecast Center. Contact Krishnamurti at (850) 644-2210, ore-mail [email protected]; contact Williford at (850) 644-9277, or e-mail [email protected].

* Robert Deyle, associate professor of urban and regional planning, helped develop a tax model in 1999 that spreads the costs of emergency planning, response and recovery efforts for hurricanes more equitably by requiring those at greatest risk to pay the biggest share. He and a colleague developed a gaming simulation in 2000 for training local officials about hurricane recovery planning, operations and decision making. Workshops using the gaming simulation are currently being offered by the Florida Department of Community Affairs. Contact Deyle at (850) 644-8512.

* James J. O'Brien, a professor of meteorology and oceanography, is the director of the FSU Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies. An internationally known expert on El Ni--o and related weather phenomena, O'Brien also is the State Climatologist of Florida and is a Foreign Member of the Norwegian Academy of Letters and Science. Contact O'Brien at (850) 644-4581, (850) 386-8201, or e-mail [email protected].

* Jay Baker, associate professor of geography and founding member of the National Hurricane Conference, is an expert on the human response to hurricanes. Baker studies how people respond to warnings and evacuation orders and how emergency managers use forecasts to implement evacuation plans. In 2000, Baker completed an extensive study on the 1999 Hurricane Floyd evacuation, the nation's largest. Contact Baker at (850) 893-8993, (850) 668-1045, or e-mail [email protected].

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