Hurricane Experts Available to Provide Analysis Throughout the Season

Hurricane Season 2013

HURRICANE EXPERTS AVAILABLE TO PROVIDE ANALYSIS THROUGHOUT THE SEASON

From prediction to recovery, Florida State University’s experts are among the best in the nation when it comes to the study of hurricanes and their impact on people and property. These experts are available to answer media questions and provide perspective to news stories throughout the 2013 hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

FORECASTING, FORMATION AND TRACKING

•Mark Bourassa, professor of meteorology, (850) 644-6923 or 645-4788; [email protected]Bourassa’s expertise is in the transfer of energy and momentum between the ocean and the atmosphere and remote sensing, particularly of surface winds. He also is an expert in surface water waves and the identification of tropical disturbances, possible precursors to tropical cyclones. Recent work has involved remotely sensed estimates of the energy released in storms, as water vapor is converted to precipitation.

•Dmitry Dukhovskoy, associate research scientist at the FSU Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), (850) 644-1168; [email protected]Dukhovskoy’s research interests focus on numerical modeling of ocean physical processes including ocean dynamics, storm surges, air-sea interaction, waves and tides. He has been involved in different research efforts that studied ocean response to tropical storms. Currently, he is developing a storm surge model for the U.S. Gulf Coast as part of a project on flood risk assessment in the Gulf of Mexico.

•James Elsner, professor of geography, (850) 877-4039; [email protected]Elsner is an expert on hurricanes and statistical models for long-range prediction. His research is on developing the science and technology for modeling the risk of a catastrophic storm along the nation’s coastline. He studies the relationship of hurricanes to climate factors including El Niño and global warming. His recent work compares hurricane activity along the Gulf Coast measured from historical and geological records, and he has recently developed a model for predicting the likelihood of economic losses.

•Robert Hart, associate professor of meteorology, (850) 645-1552; [email protected]Hart’s research focuses on hurricane predictability, both track and intensity; the role of hurricanes in climate; and the impact of hurricanes on the higher latitudes.

•T.N. Krishnamurti, emeritus Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor of Meteorology, (850) 644-2210; [email protected]Krishnamurti is an international expert in computer modeling for tropical meteorology and numerical weather prediction. He developed the Super Ensemble technique that collects forecasts made by a world community of models and yields a best consensus long-range track, landfall and intensity forecast.

•Tim LaRow, associate research scientist at the FSU Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), (850) 644-6926; [email protected]LaRow and his colleagues at COAPS use a numerical climate model developed at FSU to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity. Numerical models use high performance computers to synthesize massive amounts of information, including atmospheric, ocean and land data.

•Vasu Misra, associate professor of meteorology, (850) 645-8859; [email protected]Misra studies climate variability and predictability. He and his colleagues at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies developed a new metric called Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (TIKE) to measure seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The metric focuses on the size of storms in addition to the duration and intensity, a measure that may prove important when considering a hurricane’s potential for death and destruction.

•Steven Morey, associate research scientist at the FSU Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), (850) 644-0345; [email protected]Morey’s research focuses on studying physical processes and circulation within the Gulf of Mexico. He conducts studies of estuarine systems and their connectivity to the offshore environment, the ocean response to hurricanes and deepwater processes over steep topography. He is currently working with a team at COAPS developing computer models of storm surge and coastal flooding.

•James J. O’Brien, emeritus Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor of Meteorology and Oceanography and former director of the FSU Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), (850) 644-4581 or (850) 459-1938; [email protected] internationally known expert on El Niño and related weather phenomena, O’Brien also is the past state climatologist of Florida. He believes that global climate change is not causing an increase in the intensity or number of hurricanes that affect the United States, and he can discuss the influence of climate variability on hurricanes.

PREPAREDNESS, RESPONSE AND RECOVERY

•Earl J. “Jay” Baker, associate professor of geography, (850) 893-8993; [email protected]Baker is an expert on how people respond to warnings and evacuation orders and how emergency managers use forecasts to implement evacuation plans. Baker has researched vulnerability perceptions and hurricane preparedness of people on the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. He recently completed surveys of Florida residents to be used in updating the state’s evacuation plans and to assess household preparedness for the aftermath of a hurricane. Last year, he conducted “real time” interviews with coastal residents as they were being threatened by Hurricanes Isaac and Sandy in order to assess their awareness of the threat, information sources and responses.

RISK AND INSURANCE

•Randy E. Dumm, Hold Professor of Risk and Insurance, (850) 644-7880; [email protected]Dumm is an expert on the impact of hurricane losses on insurance prices and availability in Florida and how modeling is used to determine the pricing of the hurricane component of residential property insurance. He is a member of the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology and can discuss the commission’s goals, objectives and purpose.

•Lorilee Medders, director of the Florida Catastrophic Storm Risk Management Center, (850) 645-8393; [email protected]Medders is an expert on insurance aspects of hurricanes and other severe storms. She has special expertise in risk modeling, catastrophe risk finance, markets for catastrophe insurance, incentive systems for pre-disaster mitigation and adaptation, economic resilience to disasters, reputational/crisis risk management and business ethics.

STRESS, TRAUMA AND GRIEF

•Wayne A. Hochwarter, the Jim Moran Professor of Management, (850) 644-7849; [email protected]Hochwarter has studied the long-term effects of stress on employees as they return to the workplace following a hurricane. Such effects include increased rates of depression and anxiety, higher incidences of interpersonal conflict at work, higher levels of organizational cynicism and increased rates of employee burnout. The ramifications for employers include higher rates of employee turnover, more absenteeism and reduced productivity.

TOURISM

•Mark Bonn, the Robert H. Dedman Professor in Services Management, (850) 644-8244; [email protected]Bonn is a tourism industry expert and the only academic ever elected to the Florida Tourism Hall of Fame. He has conducted hundreds of research projects addressing the importance of tourism to Florida and its economy through visitor spending. He can discuss the economic impact that hurricanes and other disasters could have on the tourism industry.

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