Notre Dame expert discusses effects of war in Ukraine on agriculture, trade

Newswise — Susanne Wengle, the Nancy R. Dreux Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, holds expertise in post-Soviet transitions, food and agricultural systems, and comparative and international political economy. 

Nearing the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Wengle reflected on the effects of the war on Ukrainian agriculture, the products of which account for roughly 40 percent of the country’s export earnings. Referring to Russian naval forces attacking ships and blocking all commercial trade to and from Ukrainian ports, Wengle said, “Not only is grain Ukraine’s most important export commodity, but Russia’s naval blockade of the Black Sea gave it tremendous leverage over world food prices." 

“The most important turning point with regard to Ukrainian grain and its ability to reach global markets was the establishment of the grain corridor or, more formally, the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI)," Wengle continued, "which brought a limited and temporary easing of the blockade as part of an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, brokered by Turkey.” 

Wengle explained that this agreement, which was reached in November and requires renegotiations, had significant economic consequences for Ukraine — whose export earnings recovered and GDP improved — and the world, which saw food commodity prices fall. 

“Nevertheless, the BSGI is a limited, politically tenuous stop-gap measure — a ‘better than nothing’ solution against the backdrop of Russia’s continued control of the Black Sea region,” Wengle added. 

“It is important to keep in mind that as long as Russia can hold Ukrainian grain hostage, the Black Sea constitutes an effective blackmail opportunity it will likely use in the future to negotiate concessions in the West’s sanctions regime.”