Newswise — Numerous polls going back as far as 1993 show that the American public's support for using force against North Korea is very low when compared with past historical situations, according to Richard C. Eichenberg, associate professor of political science at Tufts University and an expert in public opinion and defense policy.
"A militant stance -- threatening or using military force against North Korea -- is likely to be a political liability rather than a political asset," notes Eichenberg, the author of "Victory Has Many Friends: The American Public and the Use of Military Force, 1981-2005". International Security, 35/1, (Summer 2005) and contributor to the TPM Café (http://americaabroad.tpmcafe.com). "¢ In 41 surveys conducted between 1993 and 2003, an average of 45 percent of the American public supported the use of military force to prevent North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. This average includes a variety of different question wordings.
"¢ The only poll done on the subject since the North Korean nuclear test on October 9, 2006, showed that only 40 percent of Americans favored the use of force. This poll by CNN (Oct. 13-15) asked if the US should take military action "If the United States does not accomplish its goals regarding North Korea with economic and diplomatic efforts"¦" Forty percent favored the use of force, and 56 percent opposed it.
"¢ Average support is very low when compared with other situations in which the United States has contemplated or actually used military force. For example, it is much lower than the average percentage that supported using military force against Iraq during the 1990s through the invasion in 2003 (about 65 to 70 percent). Of the 23 situations over the last 20 years that Eichenberg studied, the use of force against North Korea ranks 17th in terms of the level of public support.
"¢ Eichenberg speculates that low support is a result of the historical memory of the Korean War, reinforced by the Vietnam experience and the experience in Iraq (for surveys after March 2003).
"¢ Support for using military force against North Korea is higher if the action is sanctioned by the United Nations or if other nations participate. Eichenberg estimates that support for a UN-sanctioned or multilateral military action against North Korea would be about 55 percent, but says that the probability of such an action at present approaches zero.
"¢ The gender gap on this issue is very large: On average, women are 15 percent less likely to favor a military action against North Korea than are men. This gender gap is higher on average than for most recent military actions by the United States (the average gender gap in other historical situations is 10 percent).
"¢ Support for military action against North Korea did not increase after 9/11 or after the start of the Iraq War in 2003. In fact, the averages for the polls on this subject show just the opposite.
Richard C. Eichenberg (http://ase.tufts.edu/polsci/faculty/eichenberg/web.asp) is associate professor of political science at Tufts University in Medford/Somerville, Mass. His books include "Defence and Public Opinion" (co-author, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1983) and "Public Opinion and National Security in Western Europe" (Cornell, 1989). His articles have appeared in numerous journals and research anthologies. His recent research focuses on the support of European citizens for the process of integration and public opinion and defense policy in Europe and the United States
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