Predictions For The Chemical Industry: The Next 25 Years (Part II)

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Monday, Jan. 12

For further information, contact:
Jim Bohning, 202/872-6041
[email protected]

PREDICTIONS FOR THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY: THE NEXT 25 YEARS
ACS's Chemical & Engineering News Magazine Marks Its 75th Anniversary with a Look Ahead

The U.S. chemical trade surplus will drop over the next 25 years, if not disappear, as manufacturing abroad replaces exports from the U.S.; Plants will become the main source of oil and plastics; And green chemistry and other pollution prevention technologies will eliminate pollution from the chemical industry.

Those are some of the predictions by a panel of leaders from industry and government who were asked by the editors of Chemical & Engineering News to look into the future as the weekly newsmagazine celebrates its 75th anniversary. The special diamond-jubilee issue will appear Jan. 12. The magazine reaches all 155,000 chemists and chemical engineers of the nonprofit American Chemical Society, the world's largest scientific society, as well as thousands of other professionals in science.

The panel's predictions are featured in an article of the special issue, entitled "Industry's Bright Outlook." They include:

Twenty-five years from now, virtually no pollution of air, earth, or water will come from chemical plants. This achievement will grow out of determination, already in place, to make products more efficiently, with less waste; to recycle chemicals when possible and to dispose of them responsibly when it's not possible to recycle.

Globalization of markets will spread out both manufacturing and some research centers toward Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. With a growing number of the most modern facilities abroad, the United States's reputation as a chemical-export giant will shift toward exports of industrial technology.

Synthetic "fat" that tastes like fat without its health concerns is the tip of the iceberg: more and more things we eat will be tailored and generated by chemistry.

Deserts will become croplands of genetically modified, saltwater-tolerant plants, a technology that already exists in rudimentary form. Thus living plants -- not the long-dead ones of increasingly scarce fossil resources -- will become the main source for oil and plastics.

The United States will likely retain its edge in research. More and more, however, chemistry fields will blend with other sciences: to produce industrial reactions that can take place under biological-like conditions and efficiency, for example, or powerful electronic devices built on a molecular, highly precise scale.

Some pharmaceutical companies will expand into a completely vertically integrated health care company, from drug discovery to patient management.

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Members of the panel making these predictions:

Paul S. Anderson, ACS past-president and senior vice president for chemical and physical sciences, DuPont Merck Pharmaceutical Co. (moderator) E. Gary Cook, chairman, president and chief executive officer, Witco Corp. Earnest W. Deavenport, Jr., chairman and chief executive officer, Eastman Chemical J. Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president and chief technology officer, Rohm and Haas Judith G. Giordan, vice president and corporate director of research and development,

International Flavors & Fragrances J. Roger Hirl, president and chief executive officer, Occidental Chemical Martha A. Krebs, assistant secretary for energy research, U.S. Department of Energy Brian W. Metcalf, senior vice president, SmithKline Beecham

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For interviews with the panelists or more information, please call Jim Bohning, 202/872-6041. For a copy of the article, please call News Service, 202/872-4451.