Newswise — After incorrectly predicting that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination for president in 2008, organizers of Washington and Lee University's annual Mock Convention are determined not to make a mistake this weekend, when they choose the GOP nominee at the 2012 Republican Mock Convention.
Washington and Lee has one of the oldest such political exercises in the country. The first convention, in 1908, nominated William Jennings Bryan, and the event has been held every four years since then with the exception of 1920 and 1944, The student conventioneers have been correct 18 times in 24 tries of picking the candidate for the party out of power. Since 1948, they have made only two incorrect picks — Clinton instead of Barack Obama in 2008, and Edward Kennedy instead of George McGovern in 1972.
While the roll call of states on Saturday afternoon in the University's Warner Center gymnasium will come after three days of speeches and pageantry, Tricia King, a senior from Norfolk, Va., who is the general chair of Mock Convention, believes the event is most important for what it says about student interest in the political process.
"I have heard people say that college students today do not care about politics," King said. "I invite them to watch what happens here in Lexington this coming weekend in order to see that this isn't true. Almost 100 percent of the student body will be involved."
William Connelly, the John K. Boardman Professor of Politics at W&L, is the faculty adviser to Mock Convention. He is invariably impressed with how seriously the students approach their work throughout more than three years of planning.
"Mock Convention remains the most significant and broad-based example of student self-government and civic activism at W&L year after year," he said. "This effort involves our students in politics, political science, journalism, business administration, computer science, accounting, the study of history and more. Their involvement teaches them important lessons in civic engagement and citizenship."
Before the delegates get down to the business of nominating a candidate, they will hear from a Who's Who of Republican leaders, including two former GOP presidential candidates: former Utah Gov. and U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman and businessman Herman Cain. In addition, the convention will feature speeches by House Majority Leader and Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor; Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell; former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson; former Oklahoma Rep. J.C. Watts; and former governors Mike Huckabee, of Arkansas, and Haley Barbour, of Mississippi, among others.
The festivities begin on Thursday, Feb. 9, with a debate between conservative pundit Ann Coulter and Democratic strategist James Carville, moderated by two Washington and Lee alumni — Mike Allen of Politico and Kelly Evans of CNBC.
"The Mock Convention students spend years building a solid network of connections among leading scholars, journalists, consultants and politicians," said Connelly. "These contacts — including scholars like Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia and Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, journalists like Mike Allen and Kelly Evans, or consultants like Karl Rove or James Carville — give their time and insights to our students. In turn, our students’ considerable efforts garner respect from these leaders in their fields."
King and Zachary Wilkes, a senior from Farmersville, La., who has led the political research, recognize that the era of the primary elections has called the relevancy of their prediction into question.
Organizers move the dates for W&L's convention ever earlier to try to make the prediction as challenging as possible. By putting the convention between the original dates of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, they thought they had given themselves a good test.
"We read the Republican National Committee rules, which said that if anyone jumps ahead of those dates they would forfeit delegates," said Wilkes. "Then the rules changed, the dates of primaries changed, and it stole some of our thunder. We're hoping that, going forward, the national party will stick to its rules so we can decide when to hold our next convention."
The painstaking research began months ago. Wilkes said his political team looks at everything on a state-by-state basis — the candidates' organizations, their fund-raising, the strength of the overall message.
One of the state delegates, Thomas Meric, a senior economics and theater major from New Orleans, took it upon himself to create a database with county-by-county information on every election since 1972 for both the Republican and Democratic primaries.
"At various points, we've thought the answer to the question of who will be the nominee is a foregone conclusion," said King. "But then something happens to change that. It's the nature of politics."
So the convention will go about its work and will make its 25th prediction on Saturday afternoon.
For the complete Mock Convention schedule, see the Website: http://mockconvention.com.
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