Dr Ali Bilgic, Reader in International Relations and Security at Loughborough University.
Quote: Violence unfolding since the terrorist attacks orchestrated by Hamas on the Israeli population is likely to escalate in the next days and weeks and will have implications for global and regional geopolitics.
In the post-Arab uprisings period, the USA’s political, economic, and military presence in the Middle East suffered because its key allies and strategic partners, wrapped in the Syrian civil war in different ways, found themselves at opposing sides of the conflict. Some examples include Turkey not having a diplomatic presentation in Israel and Egypt for years; and pioneering the campaign against Saudi Arabia following the murder of Jamal Khassigchi. Relations between Qatar and other Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia were so intense that the latter put a blockade over Qatar. However, since Trump’s ill-fated ‘Middle East Peace Plan’ and the withdrawal of the USA from the Iran Nuclear Deal, Washington has been engaging in a constructive diplomacy between its allies and partners. The Biden administration has succeeded in rebuilding a network of allies. This network is extremely important to balance and outdo the rising influence of Iran as well as China in the region.
Since the attacks and the Israeli response that led to civilian casualties in Gaza, the future of this network hangs in the balance. This instability will provide Tehran, knowing that the Nuclear Deal is now almost dead, with the opportunity to re-form the ‘Shia Crescent’ (Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah in Lebanon). Additionally, if other Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, do not formulate a pro-Palestinian position (this does not necessarily mean support for Hamas), Iran will be able to present itself as the sole defender of Palestinians at the expense of other Arab states. For Iran, the emerging new war in Israel/Palestine is a ‘win-win’ situation.
Another global actor that should not be forgotten is Russia. The new war in the Middle East would destabilise the USA’s network of allies and open space for more Iranian influence. Furthermore, it would take attention and resources away from Ukraine. A potential rise of oil prices, which is becoming increasingly likely because of the conflict, would also support the Kremlin’s already depleting war chest. Additionally, the war (and how to respond to civilian casualties in Gaza) might generate a rift in the Western alliance, which appeared united regarding the war in Ukraine.
Locally, the siege on Gaza will lead to a humanitarian disaster, unless the fighting sides agree on a humanitarian relief plan of action through state diplomatic channels, such as Turkey and Egypt talking to both sides.
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