Newswise — Fresh research from the University of Colorado Boulder reveals that the global farm count will be cut by half while the average size of current farms will double by the conclusion of the 21st century. This development poses substantial threats to the planet's food systems.
Released today in the journal Nature Sustainability, this study marks the initial endeavor to monitor the annual changes in farm quantity and size, commencing from the 1960s and extending projections up until 2100.
The research indicates that even rural communities in Africa and Asia, which heavily rely on farming, will encounter a decline in the count of operational farms.
Zia Mehrabi, an assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder, stated, "We observe a pivotal moment where there is a shift from extensive farm establishment to extensive consolidation on a global scale, which is the path humanity is presently heading towards. The dimensions of farms and the quantity of farms in existence are interconnected with crucial environmental and social consequences."
Mehrabi employed data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization encompassing agricultural area, GDP per capita, and rural population size across over 180 countries. This data was utilized to initially reconstruct the progression of farm counts from 1969 to 2013, and subsequently, to project these numbers until 2100, in order to assess the global state of farming.
The analysis revealed that the global farm count is projected to decrease from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million by 2100. One of the primary factors behind this trend is the migration of individuals to urban areas as a country's economy flourishes, resulting in a diminished rural population available for agricultural activities.
Reap what you sow
The United States and Western Europe have been experiencing a consistent reduction in farm numbers accompanied by an expansion in farm size over the course of several decades. Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture reveals that there were 200,000 fewer farms in 2022 compared to 2007. This ongoing trend further underscores the global pattern of consolidating farms and the diminishing prevalence of smaller-scale agricultural operations.
According to Mehrabi's analysis, a significant shift from farm establishment to extensive consolidation will commence as early as 2050 in various communities across Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Oceania, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Sub-Saharan Africa, on the other hand, is projected to follow a similar trajectory later in the century, as indicated by the research. This suggests that the trend of farm consolidation will have a global impact, affecting diverse regions over time.
Furthermore, the study highlights that even if the overall extent of farmland remains relatively constant worldwide in the upcoming years, a smaller number of individuals will possess and cultivate the available land. This trend poses a potential threat to biodiversity at a time when the conservation of biodiversity is of paramount importance. Preserving biodiversity has become a prominent concern, and the ongoing trend of farm consolidation raises concerns regarding its potential impact on the variety of plant and animal species that rely on agricultural landscapes for their habitats.
Mehrabi emphasizes that larger farms tend to exhibit lower biodiversity and are characterized by a prevalence of monocultures. In contrast, smaller farms tend to have higher levels of biodiversity and crop diversity. This inherent diversity makes smaller farms more resilient in the face of pest outbreaks and climate-related shocks. The contrasting characteristics of large and small farms underscore the importance of preserving smaller-scale agricultural systems that contribute to biodiversity conservation and enhance resilience in the face of environmental challenges.
Indeed, it is not only biodiversity that is at risk but also the global food supply. Mehrabi's earlier research indicates that the world's smallest farms, which occupy only 25% of the agricultural land, contribute to harvesting one-third of the world's food. This highlights the significant role played by small-scale farms in ensuring food security and underscores the potential consequences of their decline due to the ongoing trend of farm consolidation. The findings emphasize the importance of supporting and preserving small farms to maintain a robust and sustainable global food supply.
Furthermore, the decline in the number of farms also implies a reduction in the number of farmers, potentially leading to the loss of valuable Indigenous knowledge that has been passed down through generations. This traditional knowledge, rooted in centuries-old practices, holds immense cultural and agricultural significance. However, as farms consolidate and adopt modern technologies and mechanization, there is a risk of replacing this valuable traditional knowledge with new methods. It is crucial to recognize and preserve the Indigenous knowledge and practices that contribute to sustainable and culturally diverse agricultural systems.
Building a diverse food portfolio
Mehrabi aptly draws a parallel between a diversified investment portfolio and the importance of diversity in the world's food source portfolio. Similar to how a diverse investment portfolio tends to yield better long-term results, having a diverse range of food sources is advantageous. A diverse food source portfolio ensures resilience in the face of various challenges such as climate change, pests, and diseases. By maintaining diversity in agricultural systems, we can enhance food security, mitigate risks, and promote long-term sustainability.
Mehrabi aptly explains the concept by likening it to an investment scenario. With approximately 600 million farms worldwide, the current food systems exhibit a considerable level of diversity. Similar to a well-diversified investment portfolio, the impact of any damage or shocks to one farm can be mitigated by the success of others, resulting in a balanced overall outcome. However, reducing the number of farms and increasing their size alters this dynamic. In such a scenario, any shocks or disruptions would have a more pronounced impact on the overall food system, carrying increased risk. By consolidating farms, the overall resilience of the food system diminishes, making it more vulnerable to potential shocks and challenges.
The paper acknowledges that there are potential benefits to the shift towards corporate farm ownership and consolidation. It suggests that such consolidation can lead to enhanced labor productivity and economic growth. With a larger workforce engaged in non-farm employment, there can be an increase in overall economic activity. Additionally, consolidation may promote the implementation of improved management systems, which can enhance operational efficiency and potentially lead to better resource allocation and utilization. It is important to recognize that while there may be upsides, there are also trade-offs and potential risks associated with the consolidation of farms, as discussed earlier. Striking a balance between efficiency and resilience in the agricultural sector is crucial for ensuring long-term sustainability.
According to Mehrabi, a significant advantage of farm consolidation is the enhanced economic prospects for individuals, offering them the freedom to select their desired career path either within or beyond the agricultural sector.
However, it is essential to provide additional support to prospective farm workers due to the concerning issue of high suicide rates within the agriculture industry, which currently ranks among the highest rates by occupation in the United States.
Mehrabi emphasized the current reality of approximately 600 million farms responsible for feeding the world's population of 8 billion individuals. However, as the century progresses, it is projected that the number of farmers will significantly decrease while the global population continues to grow. This calls for serious consideration regarding the development of education and support systems to ensure the well-being and resilience of future farmers who will be tasked with feeding an even larger population. Adequate support structures are vital to facilitate their success in navigating the challenges of an evolving agricultural landscape.
Through his analysis, Mehrabi aspires to raise awareness regarding global agricultural trends. His objective is to encourage the development of policies that prioritize biodiversity conservation, enhance climate resilience, preserve Indigenous knowledge, and offer incentives to foster rural economic improvement in countries worldwide. By highlighting the significance of these aspects, Mehrabi aims to drive action and facilitate the implementation of measures that promote sustainable agricultural practices and address the diverse challenges faced by rural communities across the globe.
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