Newswise — On this episode of the Business and Society podcast, three professors from the University of Michigan share their research and insights on the 2024 presidential election. The panel discusses the findings of the polls, surveys, and studies they participate in and how voters are responding to the unique elements of the Harris and Trump presidential campaigns.
For most of the podcast, professors Erik Gordon, Joanne Hsu, and Nicholas Valentino discuss voter priorities through the results of the polls, surveys, and studies they each participate in: the U-M Surveys of Consumers, the American National Election Studies, and the Michigan Ross Financial Times Poll. In addition to insights on voter demographics and concerns, the panel discusses which topics should be on everyone's radar between now and the election, including China trade, reproductive rights, and economic policy. Below are a few key quotes from the episode.
Identifying this election’s key voting blocs
“The biggest thing we noticed is that the key voting block is probably going to be the Independents. We have about an even split between people who are Democrats and Republicans, but 27 or 28% identify themselves as Independents. That's a really large amount, and whoever wins that vote might well win the election.”
The role of partisanship
“We asked a question that we would normally not ask in the United States and haven't asked, to my knowledge, anything like this in the American National Election Study, which is 'how important is it for the current political system in the US to remain a democracy?' Overwhelmingly, partisans on either side say it is important, but what we were really interested in is that Democrats were more likely to say it was important for the US to remain a democracy than Republicans. What's more important to us is that the association between answers to that question and likelihood of turning out to vote was much higher among Democrats than it was among Republicans.”
Disconnection between inflation stats and the lived experience of voters
“One of the media narratives I've seen is this idea that American consumers have lost touch with reality [concerning inflation]... What we can see is that consumers are fully aware that inflation has slowed down over the last two years. We see that loud and clear in our inflation expectations data. However, the share of consumers asserting that high prices continue to erode their personal finances remains extremely high. Those two things are not in contradiction. You can be aware that inflation has slowed down, and at the same time, you do not feel like you're thriving because your pocketbook is still being hit by these high prices. Hence, we're in a situation where consumer attitudes don't necessarily match this idea of a really strong economy.”
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