WASHINGTON (Nov. 4, 2024) -- As Election Day approaches, voters view Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris more favorably than Republican candidate Donald Trump on a number of key personal attributes, but Trump maintains an advantage on several issues at the center of the presidential campaign. Those are two findings from the most recent George Washington University Politics Poll, which shows Harris with a 50% to 45% lead nationally over Trump.
The GW poll shows that nominating Harris helped Democrats overcome Biden’s key perceived weaknesses. Earlier in the year, only 37% of respondents said that Biden had the “mental soundness” and 33% said he was in “good enough physical health” to serve as president. In the most recent poll, 61% of respondents said Harris had the "mental soundness" necessary to be president, while just 48% said the same of Trump. Likewise, 82% said Harris was in good enough physical health to serve effectively as president, compared to 49% for Trump.
Harris also held smaller advantages on voters’ perceptions of key personality traits. Forty-eight percent of respondents said that “honest” describes Harris well compared to 38% for Trump. Harris also had advantages on the description of “moral” (51% Harris, 36% Trump), “knowledgeable” (54% Harris, 47% Trump) and “really cares about people like you” (48% Harris, 42% Trump). Trump held a small lead, 52% to 48%, on “providing strong leadership.”
Emotional reactions to Trump were more negative, as respondents were more likely to say that Donald Trump made them feel angry (44% compared to 34% for Harris), disgusted (46% compared to 38% for Harris), and afraid (37% compared to 30%). Harris was slightly more likely to generate feelings of hope (41% compared to 38%) and pride 37% compared to 33%).
Despite Trump's personal disadvantages, voters said they were more confident in his ability to handle several key issues. Fifty-two percent expressed confidence that Trump could handle immigration, while just 42% said the same of Harris. Trump also held an advantage on the economy, by a margin of 52% to 46%. Foreign policy also is an area of Trump strength, with voters giving him higher marks on his ability to deal with the Israel-Hamas (47% to 36% for Harris) war and the war in Ukraine (47% versus 43% for Harris).
At the same time, Harris maintains an advantage on several other issues that have been a focus of Democratic campaigning. Voters were more confident in Harris' ability to handle abortion (55% to 39%), health care (49% to 41%), and protecting democracy (51% to 46%).
With the candidates possessing strength on different dimensions, these findings suggest that the outcome of the election may turn on which set of considerations voters prioritize -- the candidates' personal attributes or particular issues.
The poll demonstrated a stronger ground game for the Democratic party, with 87% of Democratic respondents saying that they had been contacted by their party, whereas 75% of Republicans saying that they had been contacted by their party.
“Our poll also finds a significant partisan split in terms of voters’ willingness to accept the results of the election,” said Todd Belt, co-director of the GW Politics Poll and director of the Political Management Program at the GW Graduate School of Political Management. “A large majority of Democrats (85%) indicated that they were prepared to accept the outcome, whereas Republicans were nearly evenly split, with 48% prepared to accept the results, 18% not prepared at this time, and 34% saying they didn’t know.”
In a related finding, 93% of Democrats said that they were somewhat or very confident that ballots would be counted fairly as opposed to 51% of Republicans. Consistent with this, Republicans are also less trusting in their state and local elected officials. Fifty-seven percent of Republicans compared with 82% of Democrats say they trust their state elected officials (for local elected officials the difference is 67% to 86%). The GW poll found that those who live in seven key battleground states are less trusting of their state elected officials, though there is no difference in their views on local elected officials, with the effect being driven mainly by Republicans' even lower trust of state elected officials when they live in swing states.
The GW survey of 1,795 registered voters was conducted by YouGov October 10-24. This was the third wave of a panel survey, which is interviewing the same respondents multiple times over the presidential campaign. The first two waves were fielded in June and September.
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