A ballot falls into a ballot box in front of a United States flag.
Newswise — New Jersey registered voters are more likely to say they will vote for Democrats up and down the ballot between now and Election Day on Nov. 5, according to the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.
Democratic candidates have a double-digit lead over Republican candidates right now, with independents breaking for the former while partisans overwhelmingly support their respective sides.
“Despite pre-election polls showing a statistical dead heat on the national stage and in every battleground state right now, New Jersey will likely remain a win in the blue column this election cycle,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “While final results will ultimately depend entirely on who turns out to vote both in the Garden State and nationwide, poll numbers provide insight into how close this year’s races may or may not be leading up to Election Day. Right now, Democrats’ leads in the Garden State look comfortable, but these gaps may very well narrow in the final days through Election Night.”
When it comes to the presidential race, 55% of registered voters say they would vote, or have already voted, for Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, and 35% say they would vote, or have already voted, for Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump. Six percent say they would not vote for either candidate or would vote for someone else, and 5% are unsure of their voting choice. The numbers change little among registered voters who say they will “definitely vote” or “have already voted” in this election. Including leaners does little to change the race (56% for Harris versus 37% for Trump).
A simple survey experiment manipulating whether party affiliation is explicitly stated in the survey question shows the absence of such labels does little to move the needle on presidential choice, given how widely the two candidates are known. When a random half of the sample is asked the head-to-head without partisan labels, 51% still say they would vote, or have already voted, for Harris, versus 37% who say the same for Trump. Seven percent would vote for neither candidate or someone else, and 5% are uncertain how they would vote. Including leaners, once again, does little to change the race (53% for Harris versus 41% for Trump).
More voters say they think Harris is going to win than Trump, though about 1 in 5 (18%) are unsure who will win. Seven in 10 Democrats say Harris will win (71%), while two-thirds of Republicans say Trump will win (68%); independents are more split.
Including party affiliation has a more pronounced impact on the U.S. Senate race, however, where the candidates do not have near-universal name recognition. When following the common practice of expressly stating party affiliation with candidate name, 49% of registered voters say they would vote, or have already voted, for Democratic Congressman Andy Kim, while 26% say they would vote, or have already voted, for Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw. Six percent would vote for neither candidate or for someone else, and 19% are unsure.
When candidate names are provided without party affiliation, support for Bashaw drops by more than half, and uncertainty of who to vote for markedly increases: 44% say they would vote for Kim (a 5-point decrease), 12% for Bashaw (a 14-point decrease), 8% wouldn’t vote for either candidate or would vote for someone else, and 36% (a 17-point increase) don’t know who they would vote for absent partisan labels.
Partisan cues have a tremendous influence on vote choice, particularly down-ballot when candidates might not be as well-known and voters must instead rely on their party affiliation to fill in information gaps.
Ashley Koning
Director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling
“Partisan cues have a tremendous influence on vote choice, particularly down-ballot when candidates might not be as well-known and voters must instead rely on their party affiliation to fill in information gaps,” said Koning. “This senate race – which went from the forefront of New Jersey politics last year to becoming a sleeper of a contest overshadowed by the roller-coaster spectacle that has been the presidential campaign – is a prime example of that. The absence of party affiliation hurts down-ballot candidates – Bashaw, especially, here. Luckily, the reality is that, even with the race’s lack of attention, both men will benefit from not only stated partisan identification but also the presidential race at the top of the ticket on this year’s ballot.”
When it comes to voting for their member in the House of Representatives, 48% say they would vote for the Democratic nominee, 33% would vote for the Republican nominee, 3% would vote for someone else and 4% wouldn’t vote. Twelve percent are uncertain of how they would vote.
Among registered voters, 52% say they generally “always” vote in elections, 33% say they vote “nearly always,” 9% vote “sometimes,” 3% seldomly vote, and 3% “never” vote.
Eight in 10 (79%) say they will “definitely vote” in the election next week, 8% say “probably vote,” 2% say “probably not vote,” 1% “definitely not vote,” and 10% say they have “already voted.” Republicans slightly edge out Democrats when it comes to those who say they will “definitely vote” (86% versus 78%).
Voters’ outlook on the nation is bleak. Seven in 10 (69%) voters believe the United States has “gone off on the wrong track,” while 26% say it is “headed in the right direction.” Although Democrats’ outlook is more split, nearly all Republicans say the U.S. has gone off on the wrong track.
“New Jersey voters’ views on the state of the country are on par with what voters think nationwide,” said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at ECPIP. “Partisan divides are especially stark, with Democrats mostly split while independents and almost all Republicans say the United States has gone off on the wrong track.”
Harris is the most popular national political figure among New Jersey voters: 52% have a favorable impression of her, compared with 42% who have an unfavorable one. Running mate and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz isn’t far behind – 46% favorable to 33% unfavorable. As for the current president, about half of voters have an unfavorable view of Joe Biden (52%), and a similar number disapprove of the job he is doing as president (54%).
The Republican side doesn’t fare as well among voters in the Garden State: 34% feel favorably toward Trump, while 59% feel unfavorable. Similarly, 31% say they have a favorable opinion toward his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, while 50% have an unfavorable one.
When it comes to the Senate race, Kim’s favorable numbers have notably improved since last year, now at 39% up from 19% among registered voters a year ago, though half continue to say they either have no opinion on him (25%) or don’t know who he is (24%). More than 8 in 10 either have no opinion of Bashaw (27%) or are unaware of him (58%); 6% are favorable toward him, and 10% are unfavorable. Sen. Cory Booker’s numbers remain relatively steady at 45% favorable and 46% approval.
“Voters’ continued lack of awareness of these senate candidates – particularly Bashaw – is why party affiliation is so important in this race and why it will likely be the driving factor, along with what happens at the presidential level, of how Kim and Bashaw perform,” Roman said. “Voters simply have not dedicated enough time and energy to following this contest, despite its dramatic beginning late last year.”
Results are from a statewide poll of 1,018 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from Oct. 15 to Oct. 22. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 929 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
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