Christopher Nichols, an associate professor of history at Oregon State University, has these thoughts about President Donald Trump’s meeting with Kim Jong Un in Vietnam:
“This second summit now being held in Hanoi, Vietnam, between North Korea and the United States during the Trump Administration has tremendous global significance. The historic initial meeting in Singapore in 2018, the first ever between a U.S. President and North Korean leader, did a great deal to legitimize the rule of Kim Jong Un on the world stage and yet did not achieve any tangible, verifiable results regarding denuclearization on the Korean peninsula. There has been a cooling of tensions between the two nations as evidenced by the praise the two heads of state have been lavishing on each other.
“It seems unlikely that this summit will result in appreciable new diplomatic results regarding nuclear non-proliferation or weapons systems reductions. Personal relationships generally are not sufficient for achieving diplomatic aims in the absence of shared principles and a clear negotiating strategy. Thus, experts are not hopeful of any major breakthroughs regarding nuclear weapons or missile testing and technologies reductions. That said, should a diplomatic breakthrough happen it would certainly be the biggest foreign policy achievement of the Trump presidency to date.
“Still, there are reasons to think some progress might be made: the pledges made in 2018 still stand, the personal relationship and the desire for a "win" by both leaders is strong, and sanctions relief remains a potent leverage point for the U.S. in negotiations with North Korea. Nevertheless, the U.S. president's transitional approach to diplomacy has led him to not only lavishly praise the North Korean leader but also to usually ignore the vast scale of horrific human rights violations, from forced labor and mass starvation to targeted assassinations. This is by design in order to try to strike a deal, but on the world stage is seen as a sign of weakness and lack of leadership on an issue that used to be of central concern to American presidents, at least rhetorically in diplomatic negotiations.
“One take away of recent history -- for example in Iraq, Libya, and Ukraine -- as well as the past two summits must be that possessing nuclear weapons capacity keeps North Korean leaders safer from foreign interventions than not having that capacity and it is precisely why they are able to meet with the U.S. president. In turn, U.S. and world diplomats will be hard-pressed to make a compelling case to Kim Jong Un and his regime to give up the very weapons that seem to secure them and get them to the negotiating table in the first place.”
More information about Nichols: https://liberalarts.oregonstate.edu/users/christopher-mcknight-nichols
Nichols is available for print, radio and tv interviews. Oregon State University has on-campus tv and radio studios. He can be reached at [email protected].
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