Newswise — A Republican takeover of the House of Representatives in next week’s midterm elections may well give President Obama an opportunity to recast himself as a moderate statesman by the 2012 election, says Gettysburg College Political Science Professor Bruce Larson.
Larson commented on the possible effects this year’s election could have on bi-partisanship, President Obama’s reelection campaign in 2010, and how contemporary elections as a whole have been impacted by media and technology. His thoughts, opinions, and predictions appear below in question and answer format.
For the most part, Republican candidates running in close House and Senate contests are leading in the polls over their Democratic opponents. If the Republicans win the majority, what impact will this have on President Obama?
“If you look back to the early years of the Clinton presidency, you will find some parallels with the Obama presidency today. When President Clinton was elected in 1992, he had a tough start and a rough couple of years. But when the Republicans won the Senate and the House of Representatives in 1994, they over-read their mandate a bit. They won power and thought that the electorate had given them a mandate to be far more conservative than voters had wanted. Voters often do not think ideologically; they just want change. The political parties on the other hand think ideologically, ‘The voters sent us here for change, we can now move ahead with our policies.’”
“In 1995, Republicans and President Clinton could not agree on a budget, and they allowed the federal government to shut down for a month or so. Clinton used this opportunity to position himself above the political fray, saying that he wasn’t going to agree to a budget that cut programs important to people’s lives. And because Republicans had moved so aggressively to the right they allowed Clinton to reposition himself as a centrist—a moderate voice of reason, if you will— for his reelection in 1996. Of course, it is important to remember that the Monica Lewinsky scandal did not break until after his reelection in 1996. That could have changed everything.”
“If Republicans win the House, and I think they will, it is possible that Obama can similarly position himself as a moderate statesman—a post-partisan voice of reason— especially if Republicans overreach. Of course, Republicans may have learned from 1996. We’ll see. Either way, as the majority party, Republicans will be forced to share responsibility—and also blame—with Obama for governing and for the economy. It is a lot easier to be the opposition party, where you can critique what the majority party is doing, than to be the governing party, where you are responsible for producing favorable outcomes.”
President Clinton was able to turn things around to his advantage and win in 1996. Is there anything President Obama could learn from that?
“Well, it didn’t happen overnight. And 2012 is not going to be exactly like 1996. First, Clinton brought in some new political people—such as David Gergen and Dick Morris— to advise him. Obama needs to pay more attention to the politics of his time. The second thing that’s crucial is that in 1996, the economy was humming along nicely. That’s very likely not going to be true in two years. There will be improvements, but it is going to continue to be a slow recovery. The voters could still take their anger out on Obama in 2010.”
President Obama had strong support during his campaign in 2008. Where are those supporters now?
“A lot of people who helped to elect Obama in 2008 are feeling discouraged right now, in part because they see him as not liberal enough and in part because things are falling apart. The most surefire way to mobilize this group again is for Republicans to start picking on Obama. If they really overreach, they could reenergize his core. Unfortunately, in American politics, nothing mobilizes political activism more than hatred. It’s too bad that this is true, but it is what it is.”
Onto Pennsylvania’s race between Rep. Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey for a Senate seat. What kind of prediction could you make about this race? “The Senate races this year as a whole are less of a done deal for the Republicans. It could end up being a 50/50 split in the Senate.”
“When there is a partisan wave one way or the other, the close races often go to party favored by the wave. This year the wave is Republican. Even though the race between Sestak and Toomey is tightening up, my sense is that Toomey still has a better chance of winning because of national trends favoring the GOP. But that is just a guess, nothing more—and I am often wrong! Either way, the GOP wave looks pretty big, and it applies to gubernatorial races, state races, and so on.”
Over the years, advances in technology and an increasing media presence have left their mark on contemporary elections. How do voters and candidates respond to this? “There wasn’t such a widespread blogosphere in the 1990’s and stories just take off now. We saw the beginnings of the media explosion in politics, but it is simply harder for candidates today to control their message. There is much more noise out there than ever before. And there is less quality control. On the positive side, there are more voices, which empowers people. But there is also less quality control. I think it is sometimes hard for voters to understand what is a good source and what is not a good source. Most people tend to go to sources that reinforce views they already hold.”
Bruce Larson is an associate professor of political science at Gettysburg College. A specialist in American political parties and elections, he has authored and co-authored articles in the Journal of Politics, Legislative Studies Quarterly, and Political Research Quarterly. He recently published Parties, Politics, and Public Policy in America, 11th edition (with Marc J. Hetherington of Vanderbilt University). Larson received a Ph.D. from the University of Virginia.
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