(Left) Karen Hult. (Right) Cayce Myers.
Newswise — Incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head Thursday on CNN in the first of two presidential debates scheduled prior to the November election. The mere scheduling of this debate rematch veers from the norm — the June 27 date is the earliest a televised general election presidential debate has ever been held during an election year.
Virginia Tech experts delved into what’s expected and unexpected as these embattled political figures face off. “Given concerns about their cognitive and physical capabilities, the logic, clarity, and coherence of their responses seem likely to receive special scrutiny as will their evident grasp of policy details; demonstration of empathy and familiarity with the experiences and concerns of voters; their relative emphasis on the past, present, and future; and their evident energy and focus,” said political scientist Karen Hult.
“Donald Trump’s recent conviction in New York also will create a political talking point for Joe Biden,” said media and communications expert Cayce Myers. “However, how Biden can leverage this conviction during the debate will be complicated, especially in light of his own son’s felony conviction in federal court.”
Quotes from Karen Hult on the stakes of the debate
“Many of the moderators’ questions probably will focus on the candidates’ views and positions on the myriad policy issues facing the U.S. Those include immigration, inflation — perhaps especially housing, food, and energy costs — and foreign policy toward China relations, Israel and the situation in Gaza, and the ongoing Russia-Ukrainian conflict. We could also see the candidates asked to address climate change, access to health care — including IVF, contraception, and medical abortions — civil rights issues surrounding free speech and guns, taxes and budget priorities, public education, more.”
“Given the latest U.S. Supreme Court term that has seen several controversial cases and decisions, questions about the ethics and long tenures of U.S. Supreme Court justices might well be topics, as could be ongoing claims about the political ‘weaponization’ of the U.S. Department of Justice.”
“Despite the attention the debate is receiving in some quarters, it may well not have much longer-term impact. Only rarely have debates had much of an identifiable effect on whether and for whom people vote. Most reactions, of course, are filtered through individuals’ existing partisan and ideological commitments. With the general election several months away; people paying attention to the coming Paris Olympics, the College World Series, and summer plans; and the likelihood unforeseen changes in global affairs, the domestic economy, and the global environment — phenomena such as intense heat, hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes — it will be difficult to tell what from this debate might matter by Nov. 5.”
Quotes from Cayce Myers on the format of the debate
“This event will be widely watched because of the high stakes of the 2024 election, and viewers will see an event that departs from the standard structure of the Commission on Presidential Debates. First, it has a format where there is no live audience. That certainly changes the dynamic as candidates cannot feed off of supporters in the crowd for their political points. The change places more attention on the moderators, as they are, in effect, the only audience for the candidates to speak to.”
“The debate will also include microphones that can be cut off during comments. This is designed to help manage the candidates, but it likely will prove controversial. It’s very easy to imagine either candidate claiming that their microphone was cut off in error, limiting their ability to make political points.”
“One of the most significant changes to the debate is the use of two commercial breaks. Most likely, advertisers will pay large sums for these spots. In some ways, the presidential debate is like a political Superbowl, where the audience share is a large cross-section of consumers. Given that most viewers will be over 18 with disposable income, advertisers will want to capitalize on the ability to speak to this important consumer demographic.”
Find even more Virginia Tech election experts here.
About Hult
Hult, professor of political science at Virginia Tech, serves on the faculty of the School of Public and International Affairs’ Center for Public Administration & Policy, with expertise in the U.S. presidency, federal and state politics, policy, and governance, and federal and state courts. Read her full bio here.
About Myers
Myers, director of graduate studies at the School of Communication in the College of Liberal Arts and Human Sciences, specializes in media history, political communication, and laws that affect public relations practice. Read his full bio here.
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