Gerry McDermott says Brexit will shake market confidence worldwide and that Scotland will leave the United Kingdom. He says the biggest effect is geopolitical instability since the EU’s most important aspects are sociological integration and geopolitical alliances, which may fragment at what is a very fragile moment in Europe and the world. He says it won’t be good for U.S. exports and delays in the U.S. and EU trade deal should be expected.
Hauk says the U.K. has benefited from attracting talented workers from across Europe and being seen as a point of entry into the European market for outsiders. He says he can see the U.K. and EU striking a free-trade deal post-Brexit that would allow duty-free access for goods. He says once the precedent is set of a major country leaving the EU, then there will be greater instability in the EU project as a whole. He says the U.S. will lose its most sympathetic voice among EU members, making future negotiations with the EU more difficult.
John McDermott says the uncertainty about the future will lead to more volatility in stock markets in the short run. The U.K. will be free of some onerous regulations, but it is unclear whether the EU will be punitive with trade agreements going forward. He believes the effect on the U.S. will be minimal, although he expects short-term stock market turbulence. He says the big question is what kind of government the U.K. chooses after its exit from the EU.
To interview a Moore School expert, contact Peggy Binette at [email protected] or 803-777-7704 or 803-413-3323 (cell).
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