Newswise — NEW YORK, Oct. 28, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Since 1945 the world has lived under the threat of nuclear weapons. So far, we have thankfully managed to avoid the disaster caused by a nuclear war. Have we been lucky? As the world faces an increasingly uncertain global security environment, Open Nuclear Network (ONN), a Programme of PAX sapiens, and the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) have produced a study, with the largest number of nuclear weapons policy experts ever asked to forecast the likelihood of and strategies for preventing nuclear catastrophes.
"Thinking about nuclear risks in terms of probabilities allows for a more precise understanding of potential threats."
The report, titled "Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace? Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk," will be presented during a hybrid side event at the 79th Session of the UN General Assembly First Committee on Disarmament and International Security. The event, titled "A Gamble of Our Own Choosing: Forecasting Strategies to Reduce Nuclear Risks," will take place on October 30, 2024, at 13:15 EDT in New York. This event will offer a valuable opportunity for attendees to participate in an interactive forecasting exercise.
"Thinking about nuclear risks in terms of probabilities allows for a more precise understanding of potential threats," stresses Andreas Persbo, Director of the Open Nuclear Network.
This report, developed with input from over 150 nuclear policy experts and super-forecasters, presents a comprehensive assessment of nuclear risks and offers actionable policy solutions aimed at reducing the potential for nuclear conflict over the next two decades.
"We hope this research will help policymakers better understand the most likely sources of nuclear risk and the most promising policies to address these risks," says Josh Rosenberg, CEO of the Forecasting Research Institute.
The study finds a median expert forecast estimating a 5% probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, defined as an event causing over 10 million deaths. Super-forecasters, however, place the probability lower, at 1%, reflecting a range of views on the severity of nuclear threats.
The study highlights Russia-NATO/USA tensions as the most likely geopolitical source for such an event occurring, while identifying six key policies that could reduce the risk by 50% if all were fully implemented. These recommendations include establishing a secure crisis communications network and conducting comprehensive failsafe reviews of nuclear protocols.
The report builds on previous work presented at the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee in Geneva, where preliminary findings generated significant debate within the nuclear policy community. The final report serves as a critical resource for policymakers, academics, and civil society, offering both a warning about the potential risks ahead and a roadmap to a more secure future.
About the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) FRI develops forecasting methods to improve decision-making on high-stakes global issues. FRI's work, led by Chief Scientist Philip Tetlock, focuses on refining prediction accuracy and applying it to critical policy decisions, including nuclear risk reduction.
About PAX sapiens
PAX sapiens is a nonprofit foundation dedicated to preventing global catastrophes by creating new systems of collective coordination that promise a more peaceful world. We catalyze collaboration and collective action across the philanthropic, private, and public sectors (P^3).
About Open Nuclear Network (ONN)
ONN, Programme of PAX sapiens, is an international non-governmental organization based in Austria, committed to reducing the risk of nuclear weapon use due to error, uncertainty, or misdirection. ONN utilizes innovation, inclusion, and dialogue, supported by open-source data, to address nuclear risks in conflict-prone areas.
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