Another threat from the climate crisis: Violent conflicts, including genocide, will worsen as countries compete for dwindling resources

Throughout all of human history, natural resources have been a flashpoint for conflict. As worsening climate change puts those resources at increasing risk through the rise in sea levels, more frequent flooding and the loss of arable land and clean water, countries are turning to violence to protect their resources or gain access to the resources they need, according to Alex Alvarez, a professor at Northern Arizona University who studies the causes of global violence and genocide. Making changes needs to happen immediately and on a global, cooperative level if we want to head off these effects.

While scientists in The Lancet this week laid out the increased risk of disease, starvation, drought and overall worsening health conditions as a direct result of climate change, Alvarez is available to discuss the broader breakdown in global society that these factors, which often add stress to already weakening or failing states globally, can lead to massive human displacement, violence, war, ethnic cleaning and even genocide. And no country is immune, he cautions: While wealthy nations, including the United States and China, have more resilient infrastructure and likely can avoid serious adverse effects from climate shocks in the short run, once their breaking point is reached, they will fall hard and fast. “Modern technological and urban societies depend heavily on highly complex and interdependent systems that are also highly fragile. If one or more pieces of the system fail, it can produce a cascading effect on other systems with each subsequent breakdown multiplying the impact throughout society.” 

To underscore Alvarez’s conclusions, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence just released the first National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change, which warns of global instability, and heightened tensions and conflict between nations as the consequences of a warming world. This report represents the collective assessment of all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies about the risks these changes hold for national security.

Talking points

• Serious, long-term droughts are a significant factor in the waves of immigration from Mexico and Central America into the United States. Farmers have found themselves unable to grow enough crops, and communities are unable to feed themselves.
• Worldwide, wheat, corn and rice make up about 90 percent of all caloric intake, which can make a nation’s ability to feed its population surprisingly fragile.
• A five-year drought in Syria led to agricultural and economic devastation: Food crops were decimated, about a quarter of livestock died, and small-scale agricultural operations were hit especially hard. This contributed to civil and political unrest that eventually contributed to the decade-long civil war that has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and 13 million displaced people.
• Bangladesh, India and Pakistan have a long history of often violent conflict, in large part because of competition for often-scarce resources. India has built dams on rivers that water the other two nations, drastically reducing or eliminating the amount of water that gets to their neighbors.
• The number of climate refugees will increase substantially; as many as 200 million to 700 million people may be climate refugees by 2050 (although this number is difficult to predict because of the many factors involved). Many will flee to neighboring countries, which often are already stretched for resources and have pre-existing conflicts. In one example: As Bangladeshis flee to India where social and religious differences have contributed to substantial conflicts between the two nations, these displaced populations are scapegoated, persecuted and subject to increased violence and lack of opportunity in India.
• Lack of adequate or clean water is already the leading cause of death in the world, especially among children, a condition that is projected to dramatically worsen in the coming decades.

Quotes

• “Humanity, however much we like to think we are, is not separate from nature. We live within the natural world, and these changes are increasingly affecting human communities.”
• “Given the frequent clashes in the past, it is not unlikely that such historic antagonisms and conflicts may be resurrected by desperate communities and unscrupulous political, social and religious leaders eager to exploit the situation for their own ends or simply to act on their own prejudices.”
• “The clock is ticking. The window is closing. Humanity needs to get its act together and truly begin addressing this issue. We talk about climate change as a crisis, but sometimes I think that’s misleading because that suggests a short-term situation. What we are seeing is something much bigger than that. We truly need to begin moving and using all the tools at our disposal—individually, collectively, within all the different communities and institutions that we belong to. If we don’t, the outlook truly will be apocalyptic.” 

Biography

Alex Alvarez is a professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Northern Arizona University. From 2001 until 2003 he was the founding director of the Martin-Springer Institute for Teaching the Holocaust, Tolerance, and Humanitarian Values. In 2017-2018, he served as the Ida E. King Distinguished Visiting Scholar in Holocaust and Genocide Studies at Stockton University. His main areas of study are in the areas of collective and interpersonal violence. His first book, Governments, Citizens, and Genocide, was published by Indiana University Press in 2001. His other books include Murder American Style (2002), Violence: The Enduring Problem (2007, 2013 2^nd ed., 2017 3^rd ed., 2020 4^th ed.), Genocidal Crimes (2009), and Native America and the Question of Genocide (2014). His latest book, Unstable Ground: Climate Change, Conflict, and Genocide was published in July 2017 (updated edition 2021) with Rowman & Littlefield. He has also served as an editor for the journal Violence and Victims, was a founding co-editor of Genocide Studies and Prevention and is an editor for Genocide Studies International. He has been invited to speak and present his research across the U.S. and in various countries including Austria, Bosnia, Canada, England, Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Sweden.