Newswise — Despite record high turnout in a majority of states holding 2008 presidential primaries, the percentage of eligible citizens casting ballots will fall just short of setting a national record, according to a report released today by American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE).
In states that held nominating primaries for both parties, 23 of 34 states recorded records, but the overall turnout of 30.2 percent of the eligible electorate fell short of the record 30.9 percent who voted in 1972.
A complete downloadable copy of the findings, charts and commentary is available at http://www.american.edu/media/electionexperts.
The report, based on final official vote counts from all states (34) that held primaries to date (except Indiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, whose results reported here are final but unofficial), also shows:
-- Democratic presidential primary records were set in 23 states, but the overall turnout of 19.3 percent was smaller than the 21 percent who turned out in 1972.
-- The Republicans set presidential primary turnout records in 10 states. The total turnout of 10.8 percent of eligibles was lower than GOP turnout in 2000 (10.9), 1980 (11.4) and 1976 (11.5). Earlier GOP presidential primaries—1964 (10.9), 1956 (11.9) and 1952 (19.9)—also had higher turnout, but with fewer GOP primaries being held.
-- So far 54,753,664 have voted in this year's presidential primaries, with Democratic candidates garnering 35,006,878 votes (64 percent of the total vote) and the GOP 19,632,587 votes (36 percent). Candidates in primaries for other parties received 114,199 votes.
-- With the exception of Nebraska's primary, which was held even though all the delegates were allocated in caucuses, every state reported higher primary turnout than in 2004.
According to Curtis Gans, director of CSAE, turnout is likely to be high in the 2008 general election, but not because primary turnout was high.
"High primary turnout does not necessarily augur high general election turnout," Gans writes. "In 1972, the year of the highest presidential primary turnout, turnout in the general election experienced the largest decline (5.3 percentage points) of any election since World War II when turnout declined 6.8 percentage points between 1940 and 1944, largely because a large percentage of Americans were outside the country fighting that war.
"Rather it is very likely that this fall's election will have high turnout because of the issues which will be in play and the economic condition of the nation," Gans added. "But whether it will equal or exceed the 2004 general election turnout when President Bush served as a lightning rod and propelled 60.9 percent of the eligible electorate to the polls (the highest turnout since 61.9 percent voted in 1968) is up in the air at this time."
Other findings in the report include:
-- Of the states that held presidential primaries in both parties and recorded record high turnouts, the highest were New Hampshire, where 51.9 percent of the electorate voted; followed by Ohio (40.3); Vermont (39.4); Massachusetts (38.2) and Indiana (36.8). The next two states in order of turnout were California (36.3) and Wisconsin (36.3), neither of which produced record turnouts. These last two were primary reasons why national turnout was not a record in 2008.
-- At the top of Democratic record presidential primary turnout were the District of Columbia, where 33.4 percent voted, followed by Vermont (31.3), New Hampshire (28.5), Indiana (27.8), Ohio (27.5) and Massachusetts (27.3)
-- Of the states where Republican voting recorded high presidential primary turnout, Alabama led the way with 16.3 percent of the eligible electorate turning out, followed by Florida (15.9), Georgia (15.3), Oklahoma (13.1) and Tennessee (12.3). The highest GOP turnout (not a record) was recorded in New Hampshire, where 23.3 percent of the eligible electorate voted.
A complete downloadable copy of the findings, charts and commentary is available at http://www.american.edu/media/electionexperts. More charts giving the current rankings on the basis of turnout and the full presidential primary turnout history, 1948-2008, will be updated with final, official results and the late primaries and available on the Web site.
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