TOPIC: Rebuilding Iraq fraught with challengesSpread of authoritarianism more likely than democracy
SOURCE: Jeffrey A VanDenBerg, History and Political Science Chair at Drury University in Springfield
A Middle East authority and media commentator believes that even if things go well for the invasion of Iraq, rebuilding will be replete with problems as yet fully considered. And he says authoritarianism, not democracy, is more likely to thrive as a result of the war.
Jeffrey A. VanDenBerg, former resident of and expert on the Middle East and chairman of the department of history and political science at Drury University in Springfield, Mo., says the U.S. and its allies should give deeper consideration of the following rebuilding issues they will confront:
* The true economic costs* Possibility of a long-term US commitment* Difficulty creating a workable government in factionalized Iraq* Regional spillover effects* Diversion of attention from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict* Possibility of creating an environment where militants are better able to recruit followers
VanDenBerg says the U.S. needs to pay more attention to the effect of a war on democracy in the region. His assessment is that a war will likely result in greater, not less, authoritarianism. Arab governments, he says, are fearful of the consequences of a war and are using it as pretext to crack down harder on dissent.
Dr. VanDenBerg lived in Jordan in 1996. An analyst frequently sought by the regional news media, he specializes in looking at the relationship between democratization in a number of Arab countries and foreign policy, particularly issues of conflict and conflict resolution. He has commented on terrorism and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
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