Newswise — Dan Lichter, professor of policy analysis and management at Cornell University and president of the Population Association of America, comments on a new U.S. Census Bureau report finding minority births have reached a historic high.
He says: “Projected racial and ethnic population changes — if they are realized — create ‘built in’ demographic momentum for more poverty and inequality in the future. The poverty rate in 2050 can be projected by applying 2010 age-race-sex specific poverty rates to age-race-sex projected population counts in 2050. This exercise implies a 2050 poverty rate of nearly 17 percent, which compares unfavorably with the published 2010 poverty rate of about 15 percent.
“This figure obviously reflects the influences of racial composition, but also changes in the age-sex composition — an older population will have lower overall rates of poverty. The projected poverty rate in 2050 exceeds the poverty rate in 2010 for children, prime-age adults, and seniors, a fact that mostly reflects shifts in the racial and ethnic composition only. These projected increases, although seemingly small, represent maybe a 10 percent increase in poverty; they also tell us that 71 percent of America’s poor in 2050 will be minority — a fact that has its own political consequences.
“The concerns are obvious. Will a shifting age-race profile lead to a new generational divide between America’s older, non-Hispanic white population and a fast growing, younger, minority population? Do older white people care about ‘other’ people’s children, and are they willing to invest in their futures?”
NOTE TO EDITORS: A transcript of Lichter’s May 4 presidential address to the Population Association of America is available upon request.
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