HOLD FOR EMBARGO: FRIDAY, NOV. 20, 1998, AT 11 A.M. EST
Contact: Blaine P. Friedlander, Jr. Office: (607) 255-3290 E-Mail: [email protected] Compuserve: Bill Steele, 72650,565 http://www.news.cornell.edu
ITHACA, N.Y. -- A warning to New York farmers about the economic consequences to their livelihoods from what he believes are impending climate shifts will be issued by a Cornell University professor speaking to a group of policy-makers and concerned citizens in Albany, N.Y., on Friday, Nov. 20.
"For any New York home gardener who has tried to grow a warm-season crop like watermelon in their backyard, the immediate reaction to the thought of global warming might be: 'Wonderful, now it'll be easier to grow great melons,'" according to David Wolfe, Cornell associate professor in fruit and vegetable science. "The analysis for the farm families who make their living off the land is not nearly so simple. In a significant number of cases, the forecast may not be so optimistic."
Wolfe's talk, "Can New York Farmers Adapt to Climate Change?" will be given Nov. 20 at 11 a.m. at the Climate Change and New York State: Gaining the Competitive Edge Conference, being held Nov. 19 and 20 at the Omni Albany Hotel in Albany.
Assuming a best-case, climate-change scenario -- no major shifts in rain or snow patterns, or barring an increase in catastrophic weather events -- Wolfe believes that New York state's agriculture industry should be able to adapt. But, he warns, the transition during the next century could be economically and politically stressful for the Northeast region.
Annual agricultural revenues for New York's farms approach $3 billion. The state ranks among the top three farming states for such cool-season crops as apples, grapes, sweet corn, snap beans and cabbage, and dairy products such as milk, cottage cheese and other commodities. Wolfe points out that small family farms, such as those on Long Island and upstate, fill a niche for fresh, high-quality, affordable produce.
Wolfe, whose specialty is studying the effects of carbon dioxide and temperature on crop yields, says that crop varieties now being grown in major production areas usually are those best-adapted to the current climate. Shifts in growing-season lengths and warmer temperatures will require the state's farmers to shift to different varieties.
He says, "In many cases, traditional crops will have to be abandoned for new crops better suited for the new environment, and growing regions will change. This type of transition will be costly, and some farm families and rural economies will suffer, while others reap benefits. On the positive side, in cool regions such as ours, a benign warming will lengthen the growing season and should expand the list of crop options for farmers."
The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing exponentially, according to Wolfe. He estimates that carbon dioxide levels will likely double to 700 parts per million within the next century. "We can be relatively certain that agriculture in the future will be directly affected by the rise in carbon dioxide, whether or not we have a concomitant change in climate," he says.
Wolfe believes it is possible that the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide on crop growth might compensate for poor crop yields in some cases. However, he warns that weeds as well as cash crops can benefit from carbon dioxide, and climate change could increase insect and disease pressure, leading to increased use of pesticides.
-30-
RSS