Newswise — "To write a post-Super Tuesday scenario, it is possible Pennsylvania will come into play, especially for Democrats, and perhaps for Republicans." "Randall Miller, Ph.D.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have run ads in the Philadelphia media market to reach voters in New Jersey and Delaware, which will both hold primaries on Super Tuesday. However, Republican front-runners are largely ignoring this area. Political expert and commentator Randall Miller, Ph.D., professor of history at Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia, offers insights into the role another Mid-Atlantic state " Pennsylvania " could play with its primary in late April, and beyond.
"Both Clinton and Obama are running ads in the Philadelphia media market with a dual purpose " to get votes, and also to remind people in campaign-money-rich and voter-rich southeastern Pennsylvania who they are," said Miller. "They hope area voters will continue to pony up dollars to keep their respective campaigns running, and will also be ready to support them when the Pennsylvania primary rolls around in late April."
One day in advance of Super Tuesday, Miller says that the Keystone State might be a key player in the Democratic campaign, but the same may not be true for the Republicans.
"The Democratic campaign might well be going hot into the Pennsylvania primary if there's no knockout blow," said Miller. "All odds suggest both Democratic candidates will survive, bloody but not bowed. The Republican side is less clear in our region. As of now, none of the Republican front-runners are spending time or money in these parts.
For them, Super Tuesday might be a killer day, taking out one or more of the major candidates, so that they have to invest big in those states where the votes are on Tuesday."
Miller adds, "To write a post-Super Tuesday scenario, it is possible Pennsylvania will come into play, especially for Democrats and perhaps for Republicans. Whether such a scenario will change the fundamental content and character of the campaigns is not very likely. Candidates will be 'on message.'"
But according to Miller, the message has changed enough to suggest some new slants. "The economy, immigration and health care have displaced Iraq as the top items on the talking list. That might remain true, as worries of recession become realities of one," he said. "And the post-Super Tuesday election cycle also will have a changed dynamic over Super Tuesday politicking. It will demand a return to retail politics in some key states " that is, campaigns will focus on intensive, up-close and personal appearances, and will rely less on TV-generated face-time."
Miller says that under such circumstances, other issues will get noticed. "In Pennsylvania that should mean some attention to matters of education, the environment and integrity in public life " all of which have been in the news for some time here. Perhaps then Pennsylvania will have a larger say in the campaigns, by not only being a big state that could decide the winner of the nomination(s), but also shaping the discussion of issues into the summer."
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