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For Immediate Release
December 31, 1998
Political Ramifications of Euro Likely to be Stronger than Economic Ones Predicts Lawrence University Diplomacy Expert
APPLETON, WIS. --" The long-anticipated launch of the euro, the common currency to be used by 11 members of the European Union beginning Jan. 1, 1999, will ultimately generate ramifications in the political arena that will eclipse the economic impact and change the international landscape forever says Lawrence University government professor Jonathan Greenwald.
"This should be an extremely exciting time for the U.S., if only we would notice," Greenwald says wryly of this country's seemingly dispassionate interest in the impending use of the euro.
Greenwald, 55, the Stephen Edward Scarff Distinguished Visiting Professor of Diplomacy and Foreign Policy at Lawrence, spent 29 years as a foreign service officer in the U.S. Department of State, including his last four years of service (1993-97) as Minister Counselor to the European Union at the U.S. Mission in Brussels. As Minister Counselor, he served as the head of the mission's political affairs section and teamed with U.S. Ambassador Stuart Eizenstat to negotiate the "New Transatlantic Agenda," which President Clinton signed in Madrid in 1995 and which serves as the current framework for U.S. political and trade engagements with Europe.
It will not take long, Greenwald believes, for the euro to be close to, if not the equivalent of, the U.S. dollar. That, he says, would be beneficial to this country by providing an economic incentive for the government to become more fiscally responsible. The competition of a second world currency would diminish the ability of the U.S. to use the dollar's status as the world's currency of choice to finance deficits here at home, which Greenwald says "would be a good thing."
The emergence of the euro also will give the European Union a single voice on global monetary policies, according to Greenwald. In dealing with issues such as the Asian crisis or the collapse of the Russian economy, "it won't be the lone voice of the United States. Europe's financial strength will be united and the U.S. will have to begin dealing with Europe as a single entity on monetary matters."
"If the euro is a success, and I fully expect it to be, the implications for future political unions are clear," says Greenwald. "And that puts us close to the day when a strong, united European government will be able to act across the board as the 'equal' partner of the U.S."
With the world's largest economy, Europe already enjoys economic superpower status, but Greenwald sees a European Union on the not-too-distant horizon with superpower political status, an entity unlike anything this country has ever encountered.
"The European Union will be a benign, friendly superpower with shared values equal to our own," said Greenwald. "We've never before had that situation. We've always dealt with superpowers with very different values -- the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the Axis powers during World War II -- or we've dealt with allies that were of secondary stature to our own. Now we should anticipate dealing with a partner that will have the weight and status equal to our own."
A unified Europe will change the political landscape, requiring a fundamental shift on the part of the U.S. in the way it views and deals with Europe.
"We haven't accepted the claims of European Union superpower status yet,"" says Greenwald. "Our first inclination is still to attack and deal with problems through NATO, where we exercise considerable influence and power and can usually get our way. The structure of NATO is such that the U.S. can dominate decisions in that arena.
"But when it comes to the European Union, we're dealing with an entity where its strength lies not in military terms, but in economic and financial terms. We're facing a world today where economic, financial and political strength is gradually replacing military might.
"Relatively speaking," Greenwald adds, "military power is less relevant in dealing with the problems of the world today. Most of our problems are of a different sort now. There is no Red Army, no major communist threat to fear and deal with. The world's problems are more likely to center on environmental issues, allocation of natural resources, the increasing economic gap between the haves and have-nots in societies, Third World unemployment.
"There is a growing need for building stable, prosperous societies around the world and to do that, you need more financial and political strength than you need military strength."
Greenwald foresees a strong European Union not as a threat, but as an asset to U.S. global involvement. He says a European Union that is an equal to the U.S. adds strength to an alliance of common interests and common problems. But he warns, "it is more difficult to manage an alliance of equals than it is an alliance of unequals. You need more compromise and a sense of shared responsibilities to make it work effectively."
During his career, Greenwald served as the director of the State Department's office of counter terrorism (1991-93), negotiating U.N. sanctions against Muammar Qadhafi for the Pan-Am 103 bombing, and was the political counselor at the U.S. Embassy in East Berlin (1987-90) and Budapest (1981-84). He is the author of the book, "Berlin Witness: An American Diplomat's Chronicle of East Germany's Revolution."
He earned a bachelor of arts degree in history from Princeton University and a bachelor of laws degree in international law from Harvard Law School.
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