Newswise — With only weeks away from Election Day on Nov. 4, University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) political communications Professor Larry Powell, Ph.D., discusses what to watch for in the days to come.
POLITICAL ADS: "Elections are rarely decided because of political ads," Powell said. "Both campaigns are still going to use ads to get their message out, but the ads will be shown mainly on the Internet and on cable news channels. The campaigns will then depend on the news media to announce that a new ad is running. Voters will likely see more of this on the McCain side, but both campaigns will do this." This is a way to get greater exposure for less money, Powell said.
"Also, expect the tone of the ads to change over the next few weeks," Powell said. "They have gotten very nasty and that is one reason why the campaigns will want to keep them only on Web sites and have them announced through the news media. The campaigns want the negative ads to have an impact, but if the ads are too negative, they risk turning people off, so it's better to have the news media talking about the negative ads rather than putting them on the air themselves. The campaign, therefore, takes less of the blame for running the ads."
VOTER TURNOUT: Powell says voter turnout is another issue to watch at the end of the election.
"From a polling viewpoint, this is a hard election to predict because of all of the new registered voters," he said. "Forty-five percent of the new registered voters in Alabama, for example, are under 30. Normally turnout for young voters is at about 15 percent, but if they come out at 45 percent, that will change the dynamic. The same is true in swing states like Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Pennsylvania. We are looking at a potential turnout for which we have no historical model."
Larry Powell, Ph.D., is a professor in the UAB Department of Communication Studies. He is a pollster and co-author of the book "Political Campaign Communication: Inside and Out."
RSS