Newswise — Even though voters will not choose a president, the midterm election on Nov. 7 is a chance to send a message to George W. Bush, says a Purdue University presidential expert.
"The election is, in some sense, a referendum on the presidency and how the president is doing in that role," says Bert Rockman, professor and head of political science. "But it also is a time to look for a possible shift in party politics. If there are changes, the president, politicians of all sorts, especially potential presidential candidates, and commentators on American politics will be looking at the nature of the changes and the magnitude of the shift.
"But above all else, the outcome could seriously redefine the relationship between the president and Congress. And this could have consequences for the presidential election in 2008."
Rockman says the big challenge for the majority party incumbents is retaining control of the Senate and House of Representatives, with the contests being especially vigorous in the Midwest, including Indiana.
"If power changes hands, this could mean a greater capacity for the Democrats to investigate recent political issues, such as the lobbying scandals and the White House's relationship with lobbyists," Rockman says. "Such investigations could be distractions for the Republicans as they look to the 2008 election."
Rockman compares this midterm to the 1994 election, when the Democratic majority leadership was questioned by many Americans. While most seat changes occur when there is no incumbent, in 1994, during former President Bill Clinton's first term, there also was a significant number of high-profile Democrats in Congress who were voted out of office. The Republicans became the majority party for the first time since the 1950s.
"This is not a great year to be a Republican, just like 1994 was not a good year to be a Democrat," Rockman says. "People were not happy in 1994 with the political leadership, and many are not happy now. Clinton was re-elected for a second term in 1996, but pushing his policy agenda was an uphill battle after 1994."
Rockman is co-editor of and contributor to a series of books evaluating the presidencies of George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. Rockman co-edited and contributed to "The George W. Bush Presidency: Appraisals and Prospects" with Colin Campbell.
Related Web site:Purdue College of Liberal Arts: http://www.cla.purdue.edu/
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