Newswise — Looking ahead to the 2010 Congressional Elections, the Republican Party now enjoys a two point advantage (42%-40%) on the Congressional generic ballot. However, voters are closely divided on their preference for a divided government (41%) or for a unified government (38%). In addition, a majority (68%) of voters disapprove of the job performance of Congress. This is an eleven point increase in Congressional job disapproval since the last Battleground survey was conducted in July.
President Obama has a job approval rating at 50%, while his personal approval rating is 67%, and he has a 56% favorable rating on name identification.
On other name identification scores, Republicans in Congress (41% favorable/46% unfavorable) trail the Democrats in Congress (43% favorable/49% unfavorable). Among other figures tested, Joe Biden is nine points net positive (49% favorable/40% unfavorable) while Sarah Palin is one point net negative (45% favorable/46% unfavorable).
A split sample series of questions asked the public to rate how well the Republicans in Congress and President Obama were handling a variety of policy issues. President Obama has an advantage on being honest and trustworthy (+15), promoting energy independence (+9), reforming health care (+8), turning the economy around (+6) and sharing your values (+1). Republicans in Congress enjoy an advantage over President Obama on controlling wasteful spending (+7), promoting a strong national defense (+15) and holding down taxes (+18).
Another split sample series of questions asked the public to rate how well the two parties in Congress were handling a variety of policy issues. Republicans in Congress have an advantage on holding down taxes (+27), promoting a strong national defense (+25), controlling wasteful spending (+12) and are tied in sharing your values. Democrats in Congress have an advantage on reforming health care (+14), promoting energy independence (+12), being honest and trustworthy (+7), and turning the economy around (+4).
On a series of health care questions, sixty percent (60%) indicate that they currently have private health care insurance, while thirty-one percent (31%) have government health insurance and seven percent (7%) do not have health insurance. Among those who have private insurance, ninety-one percent (91%) indicate that they are “satisfied” with the quality of health care they and their family receive.
Also on health care, a plurality of voters say their top concern for health care reform is to lower costs (41%), while twenty-eight percent (28%) say their priority is health care for every American, followed by twenty-two percent (22%) who would like to improve the quality of health care services. When asked what voters perceive as President Obama’s top concern for health care, sixty-three percent (63%) indicate that the President’s priority is health care for every American, while fifteen percent (15%) are unsure, eleven percent (11%) say lower cost and seven percent (7%) say improve quality. When matched up, sixty-four percent (64%) of voters in this study have a different priority for health care than what they think is President Obama’s top priority, while twenty-eight percent (28%) have the same priority as the President. Christopher Arterton, Dean of the Graduate School of Political Management, notes: “The GW-Battleground Poll continues to be a highly accurate measurement of American public opinion. The latest GW-Battleground poll shows that 2010 Congressional Elections are shaping up to be pivotal for Democrats and Republicans.”
Celinda Lake, President of Lake Research Partners, states, “Nearly a year into his first term, the President remains the most popular figure in Washington, though the economy is starting to take a toll on his and his Party's image. Voters are very anxious about the economy and looking for solutions that will put people back to work.
Democrats can point to a number of successes, yet will ultimately be judged on whether Americans see and feel the recovery in their own communities.”
Ed Goeas, President and CEO of The Tarrance Group, says, “The political landscape continues to deteriorate for President Obama and the Democrats in Congress, no matter which direction you look; vote intensity, generic ballot, presidential job approval, or issue handling, Republicans have made gains that more than even out the playing field for the 2010 Elections.”
This bipartisan GW-Battleground Poll surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide December 6-9, 2009, and yields a margin of error of + 3.1%. First conducted in 1991, this poll has accurately portrayed the political climate through four presidential and three mid-term election cycles. This series of scientific surveys is unique to the industry in that it offers the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle.
The George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management is the sponsor of the poll. The University’s public affairs, public policy, and international affairs programs (undergraduate and graduate) frequently are ranked highly in leading publications, including recognition as the “Most Politically Active” university in the 2010 Princeton Review: The Best 371 Colleges. The George Washington University also is one of the nation’s best schools in fostering social responsibility and public service, according to the Princeton Review and Washington Monthly, which both included the University among its top-rated schools for community service in recent surveys.
Celinda Lake, Ed Goeas and Chris Arterton of GW are available for comment. For Lake, please contact Daniel Gotoff at Lake Research Partners, (202) 776-9066. For Goeas, please contact Brian Nienaber at The Tarrance Group, (703) 684-6688. For Chris Arterton, please contact Emily Cain at GW, (202) 538-7918. This data also is available via the Internet at www.tarrance.com, www.lakeresearch.com or http://www.gwu.edu/explore/mediaroom/newsreleases.
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