Newswise — Both political parties' pollsters often predict close races so supporters feel their votes will actually make a difference and they are more likely to vote, says a Purdue University political sociologist.
"Predictions based on polling or other considerations can be either self-fulfilling or self-defeating," says Jeremy Straughn, assistant professor of sociology. "If Democratic pollsters predict major successes, they could be inadvertently discouraging the very turnout they need to win - if it makes people think 'They'll win without me, so I won't bother voting.'"
The same prediction also could inspire more Republican supporters to vote on Nov. 7. Because many Democratic candidates continue to lead in polls, Straughn says the Democrats' message to voters should not be "We're going to win," but rather "We've got a really good shot, but we can't do it without you."
By the same token, pessimistic predictions by Republicans, even if well-founded, could be self-defeating if supporters are further discouraged from voting, Straughn says.
Predicting the winner also can influence how some people vote, especially if they are undecided and are likely to align themselves with the perceived "winning team."
Straughn says, "The message to the voter from either party should emphasize that if the outcome matters to you, then it's in your interest to vote no matter what the polls predict."
Other factors that influence voter turnout or direct voter mobilization are public anger or excitement about issues, candidates or parties, Straughn says. These factors can be more mobilizing than polling predictions, especially in narrow races.
Straughn, whose expertise is in political behavior, interviewed about 1,500 adult U.S. citizens in 2005 and 2006 about how people define "What is an American." He was interested in perceptions about voting, citizenship, patriotism and current issues.
Related Web site:Purdue College of Liberal Arts: http://www.cla.purdue.edu/
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