The University of Virginia is a political science powerhouse, home to renowned pundit Larry Sabato and his Center for Politics, whose nationally watched Crystal Ball predictions of the 2006 election results were the most accurate of any prognosticators.
As of Oct. 30, Sabato predicts [http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008103001] Obama winning 364 electoral votes, and Democrats gaining seven or eight Senate seats on top of 26 to 35 members of the House. On Nov. 3, he'll post his final call on every single race, and we'll find out on Nov. 5 (hopefully) whether he can repeat as the nation's most accurate predictor.
While Sabato helps anchor the BBC's election night coverage, his colleague Paul Freedman will be assessing the poll results for ABC News and Lynn Sanders will join ABC's Sam Donaldson to discuss the white male vote and analyze the Bradley/Wilder effect.
A number of other U.Va. faculty will be weighing in for national and international media on issues from voting machine security to the implicit biases of voters, as detailed below.
"¢ Larry J. SabatoProfessor of politics and director of the U.Va. Center for Politics
Advertising, polling, Virginia politics
"¢ Paul FreedmanAssociate professor of politics
Freedman co-authored a book demonstrating how, contrary to popular opinion, voters benefit from the ongoing barrage negative political ads, which serve as "multi-vitamins for the average American's impoverished diet of political information." His research[link to: http://www.virginia.edu/uvatoday/newsRelease.php?id=3955] found that negative ads are the ones most likely to educate, engage and mobilize voters.
Freedman does off-camera polling return analysis for ABC News.
Previous media citations:
The last debate: What to expectMedia General News Service / Oct. 14http://www.mgwashington.com/index.php/news/article/the-last-debate-what-to-expect/1909/
Obama, McCain sweep DC, Md., Va.USA Today / Feb. 12http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-02-12-potomac-primary_N.htm
Huckabee Supporters Have High Hopes for VirginiaNPR's Morning Edition / Feb. 11http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18873268
Gender, race and class in politics, undecided voters
"¢ Brian NosekAssistant professor of psychology
Nosek is a co-developer of the online Implicit Association Test[link to: https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/], which measures how long it takes respondents to match positive and negative words with black and white faces (including Obama's), revealing "implicit bias." [ http://www.uvamagazine.org/site/c.esJNK1PIJrH/b.1601199/apps/s/content.asp?ct=3167337]
Previous media citations:
Do 'undecided' voters make a difference?Toronto Star / Oct. 30http://www.thestar.com/News/USElection/article/527176
Undecided voter? There may be no such thingLos Angeles Times / Aug. 22http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-sci-undecided22-2008aug22,0,270361.story
When Voters Lie / How the Unconscious Affects the TruthWall Street Journal / Aug. 2http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121763171653206035.html
"¢ Lynn SandersAssociate professor of [email protected] (mobile)434-924-3613 (office)434-973-0173 (home)Online bio
Sanders studies gender, race and class issues, with a special interest in the issue of whether voters lie to conform with perceived social standards [ http://www.magazine.clas.virginia.edu/x13792.xml].
Previous media citations:
Sexual Politics Back On Agenda / Palin may need to heed advice she gave ClintonNational Post (Canada) / Sept. 13http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/story.html?id=788275
For scholars of race, an Obama dilemma[link to: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008109755_scholars13.html]Seattle Times / Newhouse News Service / Aug. 13
"¢ Vesla WeaverAssistant professor of politics
Weaver studies race and ethnic politics, immigration, the politics of inequality, social policy and political psychology [http://www.magazine.clas.virginia.edu/x13792.xml]. She is currently completing a book manuscript, "Frontlash: Race and Transformation of American Criminal Policy and Politics," [http://oscar.virginia.edu/researchnews/x13684.xml] which uncovers a connection between the movement for civil rights and the development of punitive criminal justice.
She has conducted research exploring how white voters react [http://news.clas.virginia.edu/politics/x12366.xml] to black and Latino political candidates of varying skin tones. At age 28, she's one of the youngest faculty members at U.Va., having gone from undergraduate to assistant professor in just six years.
Previous media citations:
US Voters Offer Opinions about Barack Obama, His Race, and Its Impact on the Upcoming Election.Voice of America / Oct. 14http://www.voanews.com/english/Africa/2008-10-14-voa36.cfm
In a gamble, Obama takes aim at America's 'racial stalemate' [http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080319/1a_cover19_dom.art.htm]USA Today / March 19, 2008
Presidential politics
"¢ Sidney MilkisProfessor of politics Assistant director for academic programs at U.Va.'s Miller Center of Public Affairs
Milkis has written 11 books on American politics. Several serve as popular textbooks, including, "American Government: Balancing Rights and Democracy, 2nd edition" and "The American Presidency: Origins and Development, 1776"1998, 5th edition."
His research focuses on the American presidency, political parties and elections, social movements and American political development.
Previous media citations:
Eight years of Bush turmoil endsAgence France Presse / Oct. 27http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=22&art_id=nw20081027064413870C441158
McCain, Obama Spar Over Crisis as First Debate May Be CasualtyBloomberg / Sept. 25http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=at0jj_i8qxN4
What Obama Can Learn From Bubba [http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/02/what-obama-can-learn-from_n_110512.html]Huffington Post / July 2, 2008
"¢ Russell RileyAssociate professor and chairman of the Presidential Oral History Program at U.Va.'s Miller Center of Public Affairs
Riley studies race and politics, presidential leadership, Southern politics and political parties. His book, "The Presidency and the Politics of Racial Inequality: Nation-keeping from 1831"1965," is a comparative study of how presidents dealt with abolitionism and the later movement for black civil rights. He is currently working on a book about post-war politics in the United States, examining comparatively the immediate aftermaths of the Civil War, World Wars I and II, and the Cold War.
Previous media citations:
What Kind of Temperament Is Best?Time / Oct. 16http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1851161,00.html
Third presidential debate: Was there a winner?Minnesota Public Radio / Oct. 16http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/10/16/midmorning1/
Obama-Clinton race echoes past boutsUSA Today / May 13http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20080513/a_polipast13.art.htm
Electoral history, presidential biography
"¢ Brian Balogh Professor of history and chair of the Governing America in a Global Era program at U.Va.'s Miller Center
Balogh specializes in 20th-century American political history, including the history of the Electoral College and voting issues. He is a co-host of the new public radio show, "BackStory with the American History Guys." [ http://www.backstoryradio.org/] In the latest episode, [http://www.backstoryradio.org/2008/10/early-and-often-voting-in-america-2/] he outlines the colorful history of electoral fraud, hijinks and evolutions, from the 1965 Voting Rights Act to the hanging chads of 2000.
Previous media citations:
Presidential biographyEconomist [audio] / Dec. 13, 2007http://audiovideo.economist.com/
The Internet: Now a Presidential Campaign EssentialBusinessWeek / Aug. 25http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/08/0825_tech_candidates/?technology+slideshows
Election law
"¢ Dan OrtizProfessor of law
Ortiz specializes in a variety of legal subjects, including election law and campaign finance reform. Ortiz, who clerked for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Lewis F. Powell Jr., also teaches the U.Va. Law School's Supreme Court Litigation Clinic.
Previous media citations:
11th-hour applications flood registrars' officesRoanoke Times / Oct. 22http://www.roanoke.com/news/roanoke/wb/181287
Suit Could Unleash Surge of Money in 2008 Presidential RaceNew York Sun / Feb. 15http://www.nysun.com/national/suit-could-unleash-surge-of-money-in-2008/71349/
Bush says GOP got a thumpin' from DemocratsMarketWatch / Nov. 8, 2006http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={0E1D5B8C-77BD-4B65-8C5C-28D556A88C78}&print=true&dist=printMidSection
Voting machine technology and security
"¢ David Evans Associate professor of computer science School of Engineering and Applied Science
Evans is an expert on voting machine technology and security [http://www.virginia.edu/insideuva/2005/19/voting_machines.html]. In addition to his research on the flaws of computerized voting equipment, Evans has served on a Virginia state legislative subcommittee on voting equipment.
Previous media citation:
Computer expert: Scrap all paperless voting machines [ http://www.roanoke.com/news/roanoke/wb/wb/xp-91818]Roanoke Times / Nov. 16, 2006
"¢ Bryan Pfaffenberger Associate professor of Science, Technology and Society
Pfaffenberger is currently writing a book on the history of voting machines from 1888 to 1983, tentatively titled, "Machining the Vote." He has found that scholars have all but ignored the history of voting machines
, which he finds surprising given our politically obsessed culture. "There's an almost exact parallel between the debate we're having today concerning electronic voting machines and the equally divisive, but completely forgotten, debate that greeted first-generation voting machine technology in the 1920s," Pfaffenberger says.
Previous media citation:
Return to paper ballots? Not so fast/History shows that the US gave them up for good reason [http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0530/p09s01-coop.html]Christian Science Monitor / May 30, 2008
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