President Barack Obama may be down, but it’s too early to count him out, says a political science instructor at the University of Indianapolis.
UIndy’s Carrie Cihasky, Ph.D., says the president’s sagging approval ratings are not unusual after the first year of a presidency, and she expects the skilled orator to mount a strong defense of his policies in Wednesday’s State of the Union Address.
“Obama has an opportunity Wednesday to play to his strengths and get his agenda back on track,” Cihasky says. “I think we’ll hear a major push for healthcare reform.”
Despite exceptions such as George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, a president’s numbers typically decline over time, she says, not only during the first year but throughout his time in office. In Obama’s case, according to Gallup, overall job approval has dropped from 68 percent to 50 percent in the past year.
However, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton after the first year were at 50 and 49 percent, respectively, and they went on to win second terms. Both took office during economic downturns, as Obama did, and saw their numbers improve as the economy recovered.
Obama, whose approval rating on economic matters has dropped below 40 percent, may see the same lift as his term continues. Interestingly, his job approval on terrorism and foreign affairs has risen to 49 percent, even after the nearly successful Christmas Day bomb plot.
Perhaps the greatest concern for the president, Cihasky says, is the 37 percent approval of his efforts to reform health care, a signature issue of his campaign. Along with the Democrats’ recent loss of their filibuster-proof Senate majority, the negative public sentiment raises the odds against passage of healthcare legislation.
Presidents often use the State of the Union to “go public,” the UIndy instructor says, taking their agenda directly to citizens in order to shift public opinion and sway Congress. Although Wednesday’s address needs to cover foreign affairs and other issues too, the logical course is to focus on health care and the economy.
“A major strength for Obama is his ability to relate to people on a personal level,” Cihasky says, noting that 83 percent of Americans view him as a “good communicator” and 68 percent think he cares about “people like me,” according to Pew Research. “In today’s media age, style matters as much as substance. The president should use that to his advantage.”
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