State lotteries are the proverbial "camel's nose" for legalized gambling.

So say the results of a new study, "Roll the Dice: The Diffusion of Casinos in the American States," by two researchers at Saint Mary's College in South Bend, IN. The study was presented at the annual meeting of the West Virginia Political Science Association in October 1997.

"The existence of a lottery within a given state significantly increases the likelihood that the state legalizes casinos," says Patrick A. Pierce, associate professor of political science.

Pierce and Donald E. Miller, associate professor of mathematics, examined the impact of states' lotteries on casino or riverboat gambling legalization, and the diffusion or spread of casino and riverboat gambling from neighboring states. The researchers examined 48 states-- Alaska and Hawaii were excluded since they have no neighbors--between 1966 to 1995.

Among their findings:

* Larger fundamentalist populations do not significantly decrease the likelihood of casino legalization. "One of the factors affecting state lottery adoption most strongly is the percentage of fundamentalists in the state," says Pierce. "Fundamentalists routinely and aggressively combat almost all forms of legalized gambling, except bingo, in the states. Their lobbying and activism, however, has failed to derail casino gambling."

* Casino adoption is unrelated to a state's fiscal need. "States do not turn to casinos because they need the revenue. Although we did not include cities' fiscal needs in the analysis, states frequently legalize casino gambling in response to the needs of blighted urban areas," says Pierce. "Those states often have the fiscal resources to assist those areas, but choose the politically easier course of allowing cities to bring in casinos for economic development."

* Casino legalization is driven by internal (lottery legalization) and external (neighbors with riverboats) gambling policies. States with lotteries were significantly more likely to legalize casino gambling. Lotteries in neighboring states, however, seem to neither produce competitive pressures nor perceived opportunities to legalize casinos.

* Riverboat gambling in adjacent states does increase the chances for casino adoption, but neighboring casinos do not have a similar effect.

* The probability of casino legalization in any given year is generally well below five percent. If the state does not have a lottery, even three neighbors with riverboat gambling will increase the probability of adoption to only 5.7 percent. At the other end of the scale, a state with a lottery and three neighbors with riverboat gambling has an almost 1 in 4 chance of legalizing casinos in a given year.

Editors & Reporters: Contact Dr. Pierce at 219-284-4469 or Dr. Miller at 219-284-4492. If you would like to see a copy of their paper, please contact Steve Infanti of Dick Jones Communications at 814-867-1963. We help Saint Mary's College with its public affairs work.