Dec. 8, 1997
Dan Adkins, 606-257-1754
"STRONG, STEADY" GROWTH PREDICTED FOR KENTUCKY'S ECONOMY IN 1998
Kentucky's economy is expected to grow by more than 2 percent in 1998, reflecting "steady, moderate to strong growth" that will exceed the national economy's performance, a University of Kentucky economist forecasts.
"The forecast for 1998 predicts a faster rate of growth for Kentucky than the United States," economist Eric Thompson predicted Monday at a news conference announcing the release of his article, "Quarterly forecasts for the Kentucky Economy, 1998-2000." Thompson's article is the lead story in the UK Center for Business and Economic Research's "Kentucky Annual Economic Report 1998."
Thompson based his forecast on "a range of measures, including real value-added output, real personal income, total employment and manufacturing employment."
The state's economy will grow by 2.2 percent, he predicted.
However, Thompson expects the state's rate of growth to decelerate in 1999 and 2000, to 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent respectively. Even so, he said, "Growth will remain moderate for all three years."
Nationally, the economy will show slower growth over the next three years than was enjoyed during 1997, Thompson said, citing forecasts by DRI/McGraw-Hill.
Thompson noted that Kentucky's economy also enjoyed "stronger performance" than anticipated in 1997, "in part due to a rebound in the state's manufacturing sector." Kentucky manufacturers lost nearly 2,000 manufacturing jobs in 1996, but added more than 2,000 jobs this year, he noted.
In 1998, Thompson predicts, employment will grow at an annual rate of more than 2 percent. Meanwhile, real total personal income also will rise steadily, he said.
Industries that can expect the largest employment growth in 1998 are services (3.3 percent) and retail trade (2.7 percent). Manufacturing employment is predicted to increase by 1 percent, or 3,100 new manufacturing jobs, Thompson forecasts.
However, coal mining employment will continue its decline, losing about 400 jobs in 1998. -30-
CONTACT: Eric Thompson, 606-257-1386.
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