POWELL MAKES CASE AGAINST IRAQ, BUT IS IT CAUSE FOR WAR? -- Thursday's U.N. address by Secretary of State Colin Powell may have hawkish Americans shaking their heads at the reluctance of other Security Council members to authorize military action against Iraq. But as Joseph Schwartz, chair of Temple's political science department, points out, a military victory in Iraq may cause as many problems as it solves.
"While it is possible that the United States could win a relatively quick military victory and keep American casualty levels fairly low, the Bush administration radically underestimates the difficulties they will face in any post-Saddam occupation," says Schwartz. In addition to the humanitarian crises likely to be created by U.S. bombing, Schwartz points out that without a strong central government, modern Iraq may crumble. "As with many post-colonial states, Iraq was cobbled together by the European powers from diverse tribes and peoples that share no natural 'national' allegiance," says Schwartz. "In Iraq, history could judge (though history is fickle, of course) that our containment of the brutal Hussein regime contributed more to regional peace than the unstable or equally dictatorial (but even more anti-U.S.) regime that could result from a U.S. military invasion."
Reach Dr. Schwartz through the Office of News and Media Relations (NMR), 215-204-7476.
WHY POWELL'S SPEECH DIDN'T CHANGE OPPOSITION TO WAR -- Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech to the U.N. was "detailed and at times eloquent" but failed to fundamentally alter perspectives throughout the international community, says Richard Immerman, director of Temple's Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy.
"Put simply, many states, most prominently France and Germany, are very reluctant to wage war on Iraq and resent the United States' pressure to rush them into one," says Immerman. "In part this is because of domestic concerns. But in addition, they genuinely, and I would argue legitimately, feel very threatened by the potential for a war against Iraq producing more costs to them than benefits. For example, nations in Europe do not believe their economies could withstand the possible disruption of the supply of oil, and they consider themselves more vulnerable to terrorist attacks that an invasion of Iraq might well spawn."
Another reason Immerman cites for Powell's inability to garner additional support for military action is the lack of a perceived "clear and present danger" by much of the world. "Not long ago the Bush administration sought to magnify the threat by focusing on the nuclear risk. But the U.N. inspectors concluded Iraq did not possess nuclear weapons. Hence, Powell presented evidence only of deception concerning chemical/biological weapons. Many states believe that Saddam Hussein would use these only if attacked (if at all), and that, given more time, a rigorous inspection regimen can readily manage the problem."
Reach Dr. Immerman through NMR.
IS A HYDROGEN CAR IN YOUR (IMMEDIATE) FUTURE? -- While alternative fuel vehicles are currently available and their cost will likely come down significantly over the next five years, President Bush in his recent State-of-the-Union Address called for the development of hydrogen-fueled vehicles, a prospect that could take considerably longer to accomplish, says Temple mechanical engineering professor Richard S. Cohen.
"There are few facilities for generating hydrogen in large enough quantities or for distributing it," says Cohen, an automotive engineer. "Also, the method of storing it in vehicles has not been well established." Cohen says hydrogen can be stored as compressed gas at very high pressures; as liquid at extremely low temperatures (near absolute zero); or absorbed in metal hydride tanks, which are heavy and somewhat more difficult to extract hydrogen from. "A major difficulty of any of these storage methods, but particularly of the gaseous storage method, is that it will take quite a while to refuel the vehicle," he adds. "Fifteen to 30 minutes to compress enough hydrogen into your tank to travel 250 miles seems to be a typical estimate."
Solving the storage and distribution problems will be much more difficult than building cars that use hydrogen, adds Cohen. "Most experts estimate it will be 10 to 20 years before there will be enough hydrogen-fueled vehicles and adequate distributions systems for general public use."
Reach Dr. Cohen through NMR.
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