Newswise — In recent years, there has been a rise in the support for populist parties across the Western world. This trend has been accompanied by an increase in the number of studies focusing on populism, examining various aspects such as the reasons behind voting for populist parties, the consequences of such support, and the emergence and prevalence of populist attitudes.
Researchers Carolina Galais from Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and Marc Guinjoan from Universitat Oberta de Catalunya have recently published a study titled "I want to believe: The relationship between conspiratorial beliefs and populist attitudes in Spain" in the open access journal Electoral Studies. The study explores potential links between conspiracy theories and populist attitudes in Spain.
Different explanations for the same problem
Different authors hold varying perspectives on the relationship between conspiracy theories and populism. Some argue that there is no clear distinction between the two, as they may share similarities or reflect similar mentalities. Others, like Guinjoan and Galais, believe that one of these factors can trigger and drive changes in the other. In their study, they argue and provide empirical evidence, including experimental methods, to support the notion that exposure to conspiracy theories can increase belief in them, leading to the promotion of populist thinking, particularly in the form of Manichaean thinking - viewing the world in simplistic terms of good versus evil.
It should be noted that populist thinking can also promote a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories, and evidence suggests that the discourse of certain parties can encourage the development of such ideas. "Both routes are possible and simultaneous: it will work one way for some people and the other way for others. Our paper focuses on proving the less explored route, according to which exposure to conspiracy theories encourages populist thinking," explained the authors.
Two online surveys and an experiment
The authors conducted an online survey of 2,887 adults to investigate the link between belief in conspiracy theories (related to 9/11, pharmaceutical industry, secret groups, and alien life) and populist attitudes (such as "many members of government are shameless" or "those who don't agree with my political views are misinformed"). They found a correlation, indicating that those who embrace conspiracy theories tend to have populist attitudes.
In the second part of the study, a survey-based experiment was conducted. A random group of participants was exposed to a conspiracy theory about the 9/11 attacks, and then asked about their opinion on strongly populist statements. Those who were exposed to the conspiracy theory were more likely to agree with the populist statements compared to the control group.
A world of good and evil
The dimension of Manichaeism in populism is strongly affected by exposure to conspiracy theories, as Manichaeism views society as split between good and evil, which aligns with the overarching plot often presented in conspiracy theories. This may contribute to rising polarization and support for populist and anti-establishment parties.
However, the other two dimensions of populism, namely anti-elitism and people-centrism, were found to be unaffected by conspiracy theories in the study conducted in Spain, which has similar proportions of conspiracy theory supporters compared to other countries. The authors suggest that the correlation found in Spain may also apply in other countries, but further empirical analysis is needed to confirm this.
Reference article
Guinjoan, Marc; Galais, Carol (2023). I want to believe: The relationship between conspiratorial beliefs and populist attitudes in Spain. Electoral Studies, Volume 81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102574
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