Los Alamos National Laboratory
Gary Kliewer, (505) 665-2085 / [email protected]
LOS ALAMOS BUILDS UNIQUE WEAPON AGAINST INFLUENZA LOS ALAMOS, N.M., Nov. 3, 1997 -- Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists have the flu. In fact, they have virulent forms from all over the world -- but all safely quarantined as research data. Los Alamos is compiling the world's most comprehensive database of the genetic information available about the influenza virus. The database will help medical researchers identify and prepare for the next flu pandemic.
Most disease specialists agree that it is only a matter of time -- and perhaps very little time -- before a strain of the influenza virus sweeps through the human population again, causing a major global public health emergency. Twenty years have passed since the last worldwide outbreak. Young people are susceptible to new attacks by older virus strains. Everyone is at risk from virus forms that could emerge from animal carriers at any time. Modern commerce and transportation guarantee the disease will rapidly spread around the world. And a pandemic outbreak of a new form will outrun current capacity to design and distribute vaccines.
Los Alamos, a U.S. Department of Energy laboratory, is working with the University of California and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to build a database that will track flu virus forms in both animal and human populations, compile viral sequence data for analysis, organize related medical records from around the world and help in the design of new vaccines.
"The protection that modern medicine provides against influenza is limited to merely the circulating strains for which we have some information," warns Los Alamos database project leader Gerald Myers. "There are many viral forms in nature that could initiate a pandemic of huge proportions, affecting young and old alike, and the most advanced and wealthiest countries would have relatively little refuge. That is why we are embarking upon a long-range, multidisciplinary effort of crisis prediction and management concerned with influenza."
Three influenza pandemics have occurred during the past century alone. The infamous "Spanish flu" of 1918 killed more than 20 million people worldwide, primarily young adults. Antibiotics available for secondary bacterial infections and better health care in general reduced mortality rates during the 1957 "Asian" flu and the 1968 "Hong Kong" flu outbreaks, but the virus is still a killer, and the social disruption, the strain on medical facilities and economic losses that run into billions of dollars make the inevitable flu pandemic a public health priority.
Birds -- including commercial poultry -- are carriers of the influenza virus. Of the 15 forms of flu virus found in birds, three have been identified in humans this century; one of the other 12 could potentially enter the human population at any time.
Pigs also carry the virus. Because pigs have receptors for both the bird and human forms, swine can transmit an avian flu strain to humans. The danger is close at hand: recently, one child in southern China died from a viral form common in poultry but never before seen in humans.
The Los Alamos database will help track incidents and outbreaks of the myriad influenza forms in both animal and human populations. Armed with information about what forms of the flu are appearing or moving around the world, researchers will have a better chance of identifying new strains and advising health officials on where to commit limited resources. The database also will aid in the collection of international studies of influenza epidemiology. However, there are numerous stumbling blocks to gathering records from around the world.
"Russian medical institutes have stopped reporting since the collapse of the Soviet Union," Myers said. "But Russia is a major source of cases and flu varieties. Also, various governments are collecting information about flu outbreaks, but the reports are not getting published."
Scientists must have reliable data from many sources, especially since a new flu bug could break out anywhere, and it could arise from an avian form or turn out to be a new form of an old strain. There has even been an outbreak of the 1918 "Spanish" flu that escaped from a Russian laboratory in 1977.
The database also will contain viral sequence data, immunological studies and information on protein structures. A sequence is the blueprint of the genetic code of the virus. From his experience building similar databases for HIV and human papillomavirus, Myers is expert at compiling sequence information and organizing curators and analysts of the data to create an international research tool.
Los Alamos theorist Alan Lapedes already has performed the initial analysis of hundreds of influenza sequences collated by Myers; he is beginning to relate the yearly changes in the sequences to physical characteristics of the virus. Following up on the work of Nancy Cox at the CDC, Lapedes is attempting to correlate changes in the virus with the consequences in humans, such as increased mortality rates in years of greater viral variation.
"Our goal is to get a handle on how the virus is evolving, but on a more quantitative basis than we've been able to do before," said Lapedes.
Finally, analysis of research and records organized in the database will aid in the development of new vaccines.
"Each year the CDC goes through the horrendous process of deciding what goes into this year's flu shot," said Myers.
The annual flu vaccine is a best-guess cocktail of the influenza strains considered most likely to be prevalent that season. Genetic analysis of mutational drift will be closely tied to structural modeling studies of the viral coat protein. The coat protein is what changes each year, defeating older vaccines. Studies may eventually enable the CDC to make more informed decisions in their selection each year of the viral strains that constitute the flu shot.
Los Alamos National Laboratory is operated by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy. -30-
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