Newswise — Throughout the US, there has been debate among lawmakers and citizens regarding the issue of bail reform, aimed at reducing pretrial detention rates by eliminating cash bail. New York State implemented legislation in 2019 to restrict the use of money bail and enhance pretrial release. In a recent study, researchers assessed the impact of the law on crime rates in the state, taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite increases in rates of murder, larceny, and motor vehicle theft following the implementation of the bail reform law, none of these increases were statistically significant when compared to a control group. This implies that the impact of bail reform on the rise in crime rates was insignificant.
The investigation was conducted by scholars from the State University of New York at Albany (SUNY Albany) and was published in Justice Quarterly, a journal affiliated with the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences.
Sishi Wu, a Ph.D. candidate in criminal justice at SUNY Albany, who spearheaded the research, stated that "This research is the initial thorough assessment of the impact of bail reform on crime in New York State. The findings can provide insights to policymakers and address the public's concerns."
The bail reform law of New York State was implemented on January 1, 2020. The legislation mandates that defendants be released on their own recognizance or under non-monetary terms, except when they are charged with offenses specified in the law. The 2019 law essentially established a presumption of release and eliminated cash bail and pretrial incarceration for all misdemeanors, except for two, and for most nonviolent felonies, with a restricted number of exceptions.
After the enactment of the law, pretrial detention populations in the state decreased, as anticipated. Nevertheless, law enforcement officers and other stakeholders expressed concern that the release of suspects due to the reform might lead to recidivism, and that the reform could have created a perception of lawlessness that would not serve as a deterrent for criminals being apprehended.
In order to determine whether the legislation had an impact on crime rates in the state, the researchers investigated whether bail reform had a significant correlation with increased crime. If such a correlation was discovered, they investigated whether it was causal. The research employed data from the New York State index crime, which tracks monthly counts for seven offenses (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft) from January 2017 to September 2021. Additionally, the study compared crime data from New York State with that of other states by examining monthly crime counts for 49 states and the District of Columbia from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting program from January 2017 to December 2020.
The research discovered that following the bail reform, the rates of murder, larceny, and motor vehicle theft increased, but the upswing might have been caused by the pandemic rather than the bail reform. The authors took into account the pandemic's impact by constructing a control group of other states affected by the pandemic but lacking bail reform during the same time period. After comparing New York State to the control group, the research discovered that the increase in crime rates in New York State was statistically insignificant.
The authors of the study pointed out some limitations, including that they did not take into account varying levels of pandemic impact in different states (New York State was hit hard early on and was a focal point of the virus's outbreak in the United States). Furthermore, the research did not consider the impact of a modification to the bail reform legislation that expanded the number of offenses that are eligible.
David McDowall, the co-author of the research and a professor of criminal justice at SUNY Albany, stated that despite numerous assertions from the media and stakeholders that individuals released under bail reform are not more likely to reoffend, the public still believes that bail reform results in more crime. He added that lawmakers and stakeholders could use research findings like theirs to better address concerns about public safety.
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