Newswise —
In 2016, Oregon became the first state to use Automatic Voter Registration (AVR), which has since been implemented by twenty-two other states and Washington D.C. Early research suggests that AVR has led to more people being registered to vote and increased diversity among the registered voters.
A new study has found that an unintended consequence of Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) is that many people who register to vote through this system are choosing not to affiliate with any political party. This means that there is a steep drop in the number of people who register as a member of a political party. The research used data from Oregon and has been published in a journal called Electoral Studies. The study was authored by a researcher and two professors from Lewis & Clark College, as well as an undergraduate student.
The study focuses on how Automatic Voter Registration was implemented in Oregon. It found that when people were automatically registered to vote while doing business with a government agency, like the DMV, and given the option to choose a political party or to opt-out later by mail, there was a significant decrease (66%) in party registration for both Democrats and Republicans. This decrease did not change much over time after registration. Third-party affiliation also decreased. This system is called "back-end" implementation. "Front-end" implementation allows people to choose a party or opt-out during the initial registration process.
According to Ellen Seljan, the main researcher on the study and an associate professor of political science at Lewis & Clark College, the implementation of Automatic Voter Registration in Oregon's back-end system caused a significant decrease in party registration for all demographic groups. This negative impact on party registration persisted over time and was not offset by the increase in overall voter registration resulting from Automatic Voter Registration.
Seljan and her colleagues used voter files from Oregon in 2017 to analyze the effect of Automatic Voter Registration on party registration. They were able to determine a causal estimate due to a unique Oregon statute that made people born in even-numbered years more likely to be registered via Automatic Voter Registration in 2016. This allowed the researchers to study the impact of external circumstances, rather than individual behavior or traits.
Seljan wanted to check if the decline in party registration continued over time despite voters being able to adjust their registration through various means. To do this, she analyzed updated registration records from the Oregon voter file in 2021.
“This four-year time span between the two voter files we examined―from 2017 to 2021―included a presidential primary which, like all primaries in Oregon, was limited to party registrants,” says Seljan. “The results suggest very little partisan mobilization occurs following registration.”
According to Seljan, the lower rates of party registration could have significant political consequences. People who do not register with a party may not be able to vote in closed primaries in some states, including Oregon. Furthermore, political parties may pay less attention to unaffiliated voters, leaving a large portion of the electorate with a gap in political knowledge. In addition, research has shown that party registration affects how voters view themselves.
“Unaffiliated self-perception and categorical identity may be fundamentally different from those of party registrants,” says Seljan.
The authors note that the research’s purpose is to demonstrate one unintended consequence of back-end Automatic Voter Registration, not to imply such a system is undesirable.
Ellen Seljan, the lead researcher of the study, believes that the back-end implementation of Automatic Voter Registration is an effective method of increasing the number of registered voters and eligible turnout rate. However, she also emphasizes that political parties will need to make extra efforts to appeal to unaffiliated voters, as they cannot vote in closed primaries in many states and may be left out of party-focused outreach efforts.
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