Newswise — Recent media coverage of the United States' plan to install a missile defense shield in Europe has largely focused on the political implications of the shield, paying little attention to the technical difficulties it faces, experts say.
The 10 midcourse interceptor missiles the United States plans on installing in Poland are nearly identical to those now stationed in California and Alaska. These missiles are an unproven defense against a long-range ballistic missile attack, said Frederick K. Lamb, who co-chaired a 2003 American Physical Society study on boost-phase intercept systems for missile defense. The existing ground-based midcourse defense system has been tested fewer than a dozen times, scoring six intercepts out of 11 trials since October 1999.
"Not a single test of this system has ever been carried out under realistic combat conditions," said Lamb. "To assume it is going to work under realistic conditions with only a few minutes warning is like assuming a gun that has only been fired against a single, carefully arranged target in a brightly lit firing range is going to be successful in a fast-moving night battle against many enemies."
The tests have been scripted scenarios performed under operationally unrealistic conditions, according to the Arms Control Association, a Washington, D.C., based nonpartisan membership organization that supports effective arms control policies. They have taken place at slower speeds and lower altitudes than would be expected in a real attack, and the intercepting missiles were preprogrammed with information on the target that would not be known in a real attack. Some of the tests, including the most recent one in September, did not involve decoys that an adversary would likely use to trick the system into hitting the wrong object.
Russia has been the most outspoken opponent of the new $3.5 billion missile defense system, with President Vladimir Putin last week saying Russia will take "appropriate measures" to counter the system. Though Washington says the system is essential for protecting the United States and Europe from rogue states like Iran and North Korea, Russia views it as a threat to national security. Putin said he believes the system will be used to track Russian military activities.
"A lot of what's going on with the European missile defense system is alliance politics, not a technical debate," said Frederick Lamb.
In July, when North Korea was conducting missile test launches, the missile defense system in Fort Greely, Alaska, was switched from testing status to operational status, suggesting the military's confidence in the system. Then in December, Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, head of the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency, was awarded a Defense Distinguished Service Medal for overseeing the missile system when it needed to be put on alert.
"To advertise that this system is ready is misleading," Lamb said. "This system has no demonstrated capability, period."
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