BATON ROUGE -- Based on core samples studied by LSU Professor Kam-biu Liu, the probability of a catastrophic hurricane (category 4 and 5) striking any place on the northern Gulf of Mexico coast is once in an average of 400 years.
His research on the history of hurricanes can be invaluable to insurance companies, policy makers, and socio-economic planners, as well as to agencies studying effects of global warming.
Liu, professor of geography and anthropology at Louisiana State University, is organizer and chair of two special sessions on the Ecological and Geomorphic Impacts of Hurricanes to be held during the 1997 annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers in Fort Worth, Texas, April 1-5.
The cycle of severe hurricanes in recent years has led to a growing concern about the impact of hurricanes on large coastal cities. "Insurance companies, which set their rates based on probability, are getting nervous because of multiple strikes by catastrophic hurricanes starting with Hugo, then Andrew and Opal," Liu said.
"The amount of property damage has skyrocketed because of the increased numbers of intense hurricanes and the rapid development of coastal areas. There is also a growing concern about the effects of global warming: Will it increase the intensity and frequency of hurricanes?" Liu said.
Liu turned to sediments in lakes and marshes to track the occurrence of major hurricanes in the past several thousand years. Modern records exist for only the past 120 years, which does not provide enough evidence to make reliable predictions, he said.
Liu's recent research has been at Western Lake, near Grayton Beach, Fla. Core samples there reveal a 5,000-year history of hurricanes at that site. He found "at least eight catastrophic hurricane strikes in the past 3,400 years." He also discovered that 3,400 years ago "there was a great change in the environmental conditions that seemed to have altered the activities of the Gulf Coast hurricanes," he said.
Liu is also studying core samples from the marshes along the Atchafalaya Bay in Louisiana. "Hurricane Andrew made a direct hit on Morgan City. We are trying to determine how many severe hurricanes like Andrew struck coastal Louisiana in the last 1,000 years. In Louisiana, we have reason to be concerned about the probability of a category 5 hurricane hitting New Orleans," he said.
Funding for Liu's hurricane research has been supported by the National Science Foundation and the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Biological Station for Research.
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Contact: Sarah Sue Goldsmith, LSU News Service
Phone: 504-388-3871
e-mail: [email protected]
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