Severe Storm May Toss East Coast Historic Holiday Weather Data Down the Drain

History and climate may collide this Thanksgiving holiday, as a winter storm system approaching the East threatens to overwrite historic trends and dump snow and rain from the Great Lakes to the Gulf. Jessica Spaccio, a climatologist with the NOAA-funded Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, offers a look at what the record books suggest and what meteorology sees coming this Thanksgiving holiday.

Spaccio says:

“Looking for a white Thanksgiving?

“While historical data shows low probabilities of rain and snow for many – historically there’s only a 32 percent chance of precipitation at Boston, New York City and Washington, DC for Wednesday – a storm system moving up from the Gulf of Mexico has forecasts showing rain and possible flooding for these cities. This storm will likely cause pre-Thanksgiving travel problems, so remember to keep an eye on the National Weather Service (www.weather.gov) and your local meteorologists for up-to-date forecasts and storm warnings.

“Highest snow totals will be in Western New York, Northwest Pennsylvania and Northeast Ohio. While historically Cleveland only has a 10 percent chance of snow on the ground for Thanksgiving eve, their forecast is calling for 4 to 8 inches by Wednesday morning! Areas farther east and along the coast will see more rain than snow from this storm. Boston's historical probability for precipitation is 32 percent for Wednesday, but the forecast is 100 percent with estimates of 1 to 2 inches possible. Another concern with this system is freezing rain inland from the coast, at the border of the snow and rain areas.

“The good news is that by Thanksgiving Day the precipitation will be all snow and some areas will even see some sunshine.

“While this year may break some rules, looking to the past can usually give us an idea of what to expect. The Northeast Regional Climate Center has calculated the probabilities of a white Thanksgiving based on the years 1963-2012. Always at the top of the list is Alaska – Anchorage has an 82 percent chance of having snow on the ground. Wednesday will be the busy travel day, and Caribou, Maine; Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, Nashville and Seattle all historically have higher than 50 percent chance for precipitation that day. Black Friday shoppers in Seattle and Cleveland are historically the most likely to see precipitation as they head to the stores.”

Historic probabilities for Nov. 27th:

Historic probabilities for Nov. 28:

Historic probabilities for Nov. 29:

Contact the Press Relations Office for information about Cornell's TV and radio studios.