Newswise — The majority of worldwide scenarios and government goals aimed at achieving carbon neutrality in the transportation industry regard electric vehicles powered by batteries as a pivotal component of the remedy. Vast quantities of essential resources are required to construct sufficient batteries and facilitate the shift towards eco-friendly vehicles.
Access to lithium is critical, as it is used in all types of EV batteries.
Future demand needs to decrease
"The likelihood of facing a scarcity appears quite high. The crux of the matter lies in the demand itself. To prevent enduring supply issues, there must be a decrease in demand," explains Fernando Aguilar Lopez, a PhD candidate affiliated with the Department of Energy and Process Engineering at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU).
Abundant reserves of this remarkably lightweight, silver-white material exist across the globe. However, the challenge lies in the insufficient pace of its mining operations to meet the soaring demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) utilized in electric vehicles.
As a result, we may face supply bottlenecks that could last for decades.
Meet MATILDA — A model for supply scenarios
Fernando Aguilar Lopez possesses expertise in the examination of global material flows, encompassing the complete cycle of raw materials, from extraction to production, utilization, and disposal. Alongside postdoc Romain Billy and Professor Daniel B. Müller, he has pioneered the development of a material flow analysis model known as MATILDA (MATerIaL Demand and Availability). The model, which offers valuable insights into the availability and demand of materials, was recently introduced in the esteemed journal "Resources, Conservation & Recycling."
The study focuses on examining strategies aimed at effectively managing the utilization of resources in electric vehicle (EV) batteries. MATILDA plays a vital role in enhancing our understanding of the crucial factors that impact resource supply in this context. Additionally, the model facilitates calculations regarding the potential effectiveness of different interventions in mitigating the overall demand for resources.
Most comprehensive model
“Society urgently needs systemic approaches for addressing supply problems,” Müller said.
Müller emphasizes that MATILDA stands as the most comprehensive model available thus far for analyzing battery raw materials within the global vehicle fleet. Such tools hold immense importance in enabling industry players and policymakers to devise effective strategies for establishing secure and resilient supply chains of critical raw materials.
Explored more than 8 000 scenarios
The researchers from NTNU have delved into over 8,000 scenarios in their exploration, aiming to comprehend the fundamental factors that drive material utilization.
The assessment revealed that significant social and lifestyle changes emerge as the most effective measures in mitigating material supply risks.
More sharing of smaller EVs
The researchers emphasize that in order to avoid excessive demand for specific metals, it is imperative to invest in a broader range of new battery technologies. This diversification can help mitigate the strain on particular metals and promote a more sustainable approach to battery production.
We do not require additional, bigger, and bulkier electric cars. Conversely, a larger number of individuals should partake in sharing smaller cars equipped with compact battery packs.
Aguilar Lopez emphasizes that extending the lifespan of vehicles and batteries through enabling reuse and replacement will play a crucial role in diminishing the demand for raw materials.
Identifying problem shifting
Lowering the demand for specific materials could potentially exert pressure on others, resulting in a phenomenon known as problem shifting. MATILDA provides insights into the consequences of such shifts concerning cobalt, nickel, and lithium. Additionally, the model presents alternative solutions to address this issue.
The researchers highlight the criticality of problem shifting when the industry collectively transitions to a new technology within a specific timeframe. An example of this is the ongoing trend towards lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP). Understanding and addressing the potential challenges associated with such shifts is crucial for sustainable resource management.
Battery trends could affect food prices
In 2021, major manufacturers such as VW, Volvo, and Tesla announced their plans to adopt lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. These batteries offer advantages as they are devoid of problematic and costly substances like cobalt and nickel. This shift towards LFP batteries reflects the industry's commitment to developing more sustainable and environmentally friendly energy storage solutions.
The drawback lies in their high demand for phosphorus, a crucial raw material in the fertilizer industry. Consequently, an upsurge in demand may face price shocks, potentially impacting small-scale farmers and jeopardizing food prices.
Recycling not a solution in the near term
Another significant finding from the NTNU study is that while recycling is crucial, it will not notably alleviate the pressure on raw materials in the next decade. This is due to the relatively recent introduction of electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a limited number of vehicles being ready for recycling within the next 10 to 15 years. Therefore, alternative strategies beyond recycling should be considered to address the immediate challenges of raw material demand in the EV industry.
Nonetheless, MATILDA reveals that primary demand can be reduced by enhancing efficiencies in the recycling of lithium, aluminum, manganese, and phosphorus. These materials currently face challenges in terms of economic viability for recycling and are not encompassed within the latest battery regulations set by the European Union (EU). Recognizing the importance of including these materials in recycling efforts and revisiting regulations can significantly contribute to reducing primary demand and promoting a more sustainable battery industry.
Extending lifetime can be crucial
Without incentives to recover these materials, they are likely to be lost to the environment, Aguilar Lopez said.
He notes a critical problem with the proposed EU regulations: they solely address the supply side and neglect the demand side. As a result, much-needed changes are not actively promoted, hindering progress in the desired direction.
Warp speed into bottlenecks
A projection suggests that by 2030, approximately 50% of new car sales in the United States will be electric, aligning with the target set in a recent Executive Order issued by President Joe Biden. Similarly, the European Union (EU) has set an even more ambitious goal, mandating that all new car sales must be electric by 2035. These targets reflect the commitment of both regions towards accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles and transitioning to a more sustainable transportation system.
Several car manufacturers have said that they will be able to make the transition several years before this deadline.
This implies that without swift measures to enhance the production of battery materials, we risk hurtling towards a supply bottleneck at an alarming pace. Taking immediate action to ramp up the production of these crucial materials is imperative to ensure the smooth progression of the electric vehicle industry and avoid potential resource shortages.
Bigger cars mean bigger batteries
Based on the Climate and Community project report, the average battery pack size in the United States has grown nearly threefold since the initial release of the Nissan Leaf ten years ago. This demonstrates substantial progress in battery capacity, resulting in improved performance and extended driving range for electric vehicles.
Aguilar Lopez highlighted that we are increasingly driving larger, heavier vehicles equipped with substantial battery packs. However, these vehicles are only actively utilized around five percent of the time, spending the majority of their time parked. Additionally, he pointed out that only a small portion of individuals actually drive more than 45 kilometers on a daily basis. This observation underscores the need to explore alternative transportation models and optimize vehicle usage for more efficient and sustainable mobility.
Small is beautiful
Based on his observations, Aguilar Lopez identifies numerous indicators suggesting a reduced need for individual car ownership, indicating that a larger portion of the population could be content with sharing smaller, lighter vehicles. In essence, he proposes a shift towards utilizing more 30-40 kWh batteries, akin to those found in Nissan Leaf, as opposed to the larger 60-100 kWh batteries commonly found in Tesla vehicles and SUVs. This approach aligns with the goal of optimizing resources and promoting a more sustainable transportation model.
Aguilar Lopez mentioned that Norwegian politicians have made the decision to discontinue subsidies for the largest and most expensive electric cars. This move serves as a notable example of a potent measure that indirectly promotes smaller vehicles. By shifting the focus towards supporting smaller cars, policymakers can incentivize sustainable choices and foster a transition to more compact and efficient electric vehicles.
The researcher believes that moves like this are essential and can inspire both individual countries and the EU.
More than 300 new mines needed
Analyses indicate that the world will require over 300 new lithium mines by 2035 to meet the growing demand. Prices for lithium have surged by several hundred percent in just a few years, indicating the increased interest in extraction. However, conflicts have arisen in various locations regarding the establishment of new mines, leading to disputes and challenges in expanding lithium production to meet the rising global demand.
The most recent lithium mine in Europe commenced operations approximately a decade ago. According to certain reports, the process of establishing a new lithium mine can take up to 20 years before it becomes operational. It is worth noting that numerous initiatives in this sector encounter difficulties and eventually face closure, leading to challenges in meeting the increasing demand for lithium resources in a timely manner.
“Ideally, we should have started preparing for this situation 20 years ago,” Aguilar Lopez said.
Buses and ferries worsen bottlenecks
Adding to the existing challenges, the new NTNU study solely focuses on resource consumption by private vehicles, overlooking the resource demands associated with electrifying buses, ferries, and other large vessels using batteries. Electrification efforts in these sectors introduce additional complexities and resource requirements that must be taken into account to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the overall impact and resource management in the transportation industry.
Machinery is also experiencing notable transformations. Müller stated that the mining sector as a whole is undergoing a comprehensive transition towards electrification and automation.
These additional demands could quickly worsen supply bottlenecks for raw materials.
Aguilar Lopez expressed concerns regarding the potential challenges in achieving the goals established by the European Union (EU) and individual countries. He emphasized that such difficulties could pose a significant threat to the climate goals that have been set. It is essential to address these obstacles and ensure that the necessary measures are taken to mitigate any potential risks that could hinder progress towards achieving climate targets.
Promising technologies require more lithium
While highly efficient solid-state batteries show promise, they do not alleviate the lithium supply crisis.
"In fact, solid-state batteries can exacerbate the situation, necessitating a higher amount of lithium per kilowatt hour—sometimes nearly double," highlighted Aguilar Lopez.
Challenges everywhere
Hydrogen fuel cells are evolving into a mature technology; however, their high cost remains a challenge. These fuel cells are anticipated to be significantly more efficient in applications such as ferries and other heavy vessels, rather than in cars. The unique requirements and energy demands of larger maritime vessels make them a more suitable fit for the advantages offered by hydrogen fuel cells, despite the current cost limitations.
Lithium-free sodium-ion batteries present another promising alternative. However, they are still in the early stages of research and development, implying that it will be some time before they are ready for practical use on the road.
Cities for people — not cars
So, what would be the best option to get us out of the lithium supply crunch?
Aguilar Lopez’s immediate answer is that cities should be designed for people, not cars.
"Observe Zürich, Vienna, Paris, and Oslo. Numerous significant initiatives are underway in multiple locations to cultivate more enjoyable urban environments and encourage a greater number of individuals to relinquish their cars. Encouragingly, a substantial portion of the population is already embracing this shift. The implementation of appropriate regulations, coupled with public acceptance, is imperative," stated Aguilar Lopez.
BATMAN project proposes new measures
As an early adopter of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, Norway is at the forefront of electrifying its vehicle fleet. Consequently, it is anticipated to be the first country to accumulate significant quantities of spent batteries as the initial wave of EVs reaches their end-of-life stage. This presents a unique challenge for Norway in terms of managing and recycling these batteries effectively.
Müller, Aguilar Lopez, and Guillaume Billy were key members of the research team involved in the BATMAN project from 2019 to 2022. This project aimed to explore potential avenues for the Norwegian industry to participate in the reuse and recycling of batteries. By focusing on battery lifecycle management, the project sought to identify opportunities for sustainable practices and develop strategies to maximize the value and environmental benefits of battery reuse and recycling within the Norwegian context.
To address the challenges and opportunities in the battery industry, several key actions can be taken:
- Support and fund a wider range of battery research to drive advancements in chemistries and recycling techniques, with the aim of achieving breakthroughs in battery technology.
- Accelerate and streamline the development of new lithium mines, both within the European Union and globally, to ensure a sustainable and reliable supply of this critical raw material.
- Promote car-sharing initiatives and improve public transportation systems to reduce the overall need for individual vehicle ownership, thereby decreasing the demand for batteries and easing the pressure on resources.
- Encourage the development and production of smaller cars equipped with smaller battery packs, aligning with the concept of right-sizing vehicles to better match individual needs and reduce resource consumption.
- Enhance the deployment of efficient and widespread charging infrastructure to support the growing number of electric vehicles and enable convenient charging options for EV owners.
- Facilitate the recycling of all battery materials, expanding beyond the materials already subject to regulation, to maximize resource recovery and minimize waste in the battery supply chain.
- Promote the extension of car and battery lifespan through increased battery reuse, as well as easier repair and replacement options, to optimize the utilization of batteries and minimize unnecessary waste.
Implementing these measures can contribute to a more sustainable and resilient battery industry, addressing critical resource challenges while promoting environmental stewardship and technological innovation.
Reference: Aguilar Lopez, F..; Billy, R.G.; Müller, D.B. Evaluating strategies for managing resource use in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles using the global MATILDA model. Journal of Resources, Conservation and Recycling
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