A white box on this graphic of a region in Turkey indicates the area dubbed the “Pütürge seismic gap” that may host another magnitude 6.8 earthquake. Researchers have observed that the plates in thegap appear locked and unruptured. The graphic also depicts the distribution of slip, or movement (blue for locked, reddish for large movement) on the East Anatolian Fault, the location of the Feb. 6, 2023 magnitude 7.8 Kahramanmaraş mainshock, the Feb. 20, 2023 magnitude 6.4 aftershocks (purple), and the 2020 magnitude 6.8 Elazığ earthquake (light brown). The Feb. 6, 2023 Mw 7.6 Elbistan aftershock occurred on a separate fault farther west. The black dots indicate small-magnitude aftershocks.
Newswise —
Scientists possess extensive knowledge regarding Turkey's imminent significant earthquake. They have the ability to identify the likely epicenter, evaluate its magnitude, and visualize the spatial extent of the areas where destruction is expected to be most severe.
They just can’t say when it will happen.
By utilizing remote sensing techniques, Sylvain Barbot, a geophysicist at USC, and his colleagues were able to record the enormous earthquake that occurred on February 6 in Eastern Turkey, claiming the lives of over 50,000 individuals and causing the collapse of over 100,000 structures.
Concerningly, the researchers discovered that a segment of the fault remains unruptured and locked, indicating that the plates in that region may potentially produce another earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 when the friction eventually increases and the fault gives way.
“We know a little bit better what to prepare for. We don’t know the timing, but we know where it can happen,” Barbot said.
The movement of tectonic plates is responsible for significant earthquakes. These plates, which are gradual, mobile portions of the earth's crust, push against one another, building up force over extended periods ranging from decades to centuries or even millions of years. As soon as the plates eventually shift, the stored energy is released in the form of seismic waves that travel through the earth's crust.
On February 6, a major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 hit Kahramanmaras, Turkey, and was succeeded by a 7.6 magnitude aftershock on a different fault located further west. Two weeks later, on February 20, another earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 struck the region. By plotting the available data (as depicted above), seismic activity and the degree of slippage along the faults can be visualized.
A cluster of seismic activity can be observed along the fault located beneath Turkey's Pütürge district, but there is no indication of any slippage. This suggests that a portion of the fault is currently locked or jammed, but there is a high probability that it will eventually give way and slip in the future, with the precise timing remaining unpredictable.
Barbot stated, "As observed in images of the collapsed structures, some of the buildings had pancake-like collapses, whereas others were pulverized to dust. This indicates a higher degree of failure, where even the concrete crumbled into pieces. It is possible that this earthquake generated greater shaking than what was originally predicted by the building codes. Further research is necessary to confirm this."
Barbot further added, "Therefore, we are confronted with a situation where there is a potential for a 6.8 magnitude earthquake, and there are two possibilities going forward. Firstly, the local population must be made aware of the potential threat and be prepared for it. Secondly, the scientific community can use this event as an opportunity to design and carry out monitoring experiments that can help us better understand how earthquakes initiate and terminate."
# # #
RSS