Newswise — If the world maintains its current pace of escalating greenhouse gas emissions, the Arctic's entire sea ice will vanish in the 2030s. This occurrence could potentially be delayed until the 2050s if emissions are somehow diminished. This forecast is ten years earlier than the projected timeline of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which anticipates an ice-free Arctic by the 2040s.
Professor Seung-Ki Min and Research Professor Yeon-Hee Kim from the Division of Environmental Science and Engineering at Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), along with a collaborative team of researchers from Environment Climate Change Canada and Universität Hamburg, Germany, have published research in the prestigious international journal, Nature Communications. Their study projects a potential ice-free Arctic in the 2030-2050s, irrespective of humanity's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Since its introduction by a climate scientist at NASA in 1988, the term "global warming" has gained widespread recognition and become a common phrase in households. Over the past few decades, the Earth has witnessed a significant decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice, accompanied by rising temperatures. This decline in Arctic sea ice has resulted in the amplification of Arctic warming, which is believed to play a role in the heightened occurrence of extreme weather events in regions situated at mid-latitudes.
The research team conducted a thorough analysis of 41 years' worth of data, spanning from 1979 to 2019, in order to make predictions about the depletion of Arctic sea ice. Through comparing the outcomes of various model simulations with three satellite observational datasets, they were able to confirm that the primary cause of this decline is the result of "man-made greenhouse gas emissions." The study revealed that human activities, specifically the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation, have been the main driving factors behind the reduction of Arctic sea ice over the past four decades. In contrast, the impact of aerosols, solar activity, and volcanic events on this decline was found to be negligible. The analysis conducted on a monthly basis showed that greenhouse gas emissions were causing a reduction in Arctic sea ice throughout the year, with no significant variation based on season or timing, although the month of September exhibited the smallest extent of sea ice reduction.
Moreover, the study also uncovered a significant discrepancy between the declining trend of sea ice area observed and the predictions made by climate models used in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. This underestimation was taken into consideration to adjust the simulation values for future predictions. The revised results indicated even faster rates of decline across all scenarios, ultimately confirming a worrisome outcome: the complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice by the 2050s, even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. This finding is particularly significant as it suggests that the extinction of Arctic sea ice is a possibility regardless of achieving "carbon neutrality," marking the first time this possibility has been highlighted.
The accelerated rate of Arctic sea ice decline, surpassing previous expectations, is poised to have far-reaching consequences not only for the Arctic itself but also for societies and ecosystems worldwide. The diminishing sea ice can lead to a higher frequency of extreme weather events, spanning severe cold waves, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall, on a global scale. Additionally, the thawing of the Siberian permafrost in the Arctic region has the potential to exacerbate global warming, further amplifying the impacts. The unfolding scenarios may resemble the terrifying spectacles often portrayed in disaster movies, a realization that could manifest right before our very eyes.
Professor Seung-Ki Min, the leader of the study, emphasized the significance of their findings, stating, "We have verified a more rapid timeline for the depletion of Arctic sea ice compared to previous predictions by the IPCC, taking into account the adjustment of model simulations based on observational data." He further stressed the need for vigilance regarding the potential disappearance of Arctic sea ice, emphasizing that this concern remains relevant regardless of carbon neutrality policies. Professor Min also highlighted the importance of evaluating the diverse impacts of climate change stemming from the loss of Arctic sea ice and emphasized the necessity of developing adaptation measures in conjunction with policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
The study was funded by the National Research Foundation of Korea (Mid-Career Researcher program).
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