New study finds connection between long-standing gender and racial gaps in voting for Democrats

Newswise — The enduring gender disparity in voting preferences between Democrats and Republicans stems, in part, from a greater percentage of female voters being Black and the historical trend of Black voters favoring the Democratic Party, as indicated by a recent study conducted by a group of sociologists.

"The connection between gender and racial disparities in voting has been recognized for some time, but the exact interplay between the two has remained uncertain," states Paula England, the Dean of Social Science at NYU Abu Dhabi and the primary author of the research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "These discoveries highlight that approximately one-fourth of the gender gap in favoring the Democratic Party can be attributed to the fact that a larger proportion of female voters are Black compared to their male counterparts."

In every U.S. presidential election since 1980, women have consistently demonstrated a greater tendency to vote for the Democratic candidate compared to men. Importantly, prior studies have revealed that Black men face disproportionately higher rates of mortality, incarceration, and disenfranchisement resulting from criminal convictions. These disparities contribute to a reduced representation of Black men among the voting population, leading to a higher proportion of Black voters being women in relation to other racial groups.

The study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between gender, race, and partisan voting disparities. The research team, comprising Michael Hout, a sociology professor at NYU, as well as NYU doctoral students Karyn Vilbig and Kevin Wells, conducted the study in order to shed light on the dynamics between gender and race as contributing factors to differences in voting preferences between political parties.

To accomplish this, the authors of the study analyzed data from the General Social Survey (GSS) spanning the period from the 1980 to the 2016 presidential elections. Additionally, they replicated their analysis using data from the American National Election Surveys to ensure the robustness and consistency of their findings across different datasets. By utilizing these sources, the researchers aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between gender, race, and partisan voting gaps over several decades.

The findings of their analysis revealed that the discrepancy in racial composition between genders accounted for 24% of the gender gap observed in favoring the Democratic Party. In simpler terms, since around 90% of Black voters tend to support Democrats, which is a considerably higher proportion compared to other demographic groups, the fact that a larger percentage of female voters are Black influences women's voting preferences in favor of the Democratic Party.

According to Paula England, a professor of sociology at NYU and the lead author of the study, while a gender gap in voting exists among White voters as well, approximately 25% of the total gender gap can be attributed solely to the variation in racial composition between male and female voters. This statement highlights the significant impact of racial demographics on the observed gender disparity in voting preferences.

In order to eliminate the influence of another potential factor contributing to the gender gap, the researchers examined the role of income. Specifically, they focused on unmarried voters and investigated whether the higher likelihood of single women being economically disadvantaged compared to single men could explain why women tend to vote more Democratic.

Interestingly, the study revealed that the gender gap in favoring the Democratic Party was particularly pronounced among unmarried individuals. It was observed that unmarried women, despite experiencing a higher poverty rate compared to unmarried men, displayed a stronger tendency to vote Democratic. However, the researchers also noted that although lower-income voters do exhibit a slightly higher inclination towards voting Democratic, the difference in voting preferences between lower-income and more affluent voters was not substantial. These findings suggest that while income disparities may contribute to the gender gap in voting, they do not fully account for the magnitude of the difference observed.

The study's authors reached the conclusion that no matter how they examined income and accounted for its influence, it had no mitigating effect on the gender gap in voting preferences. They highlighted the importance of the racial makeup of the voting population as a key factor contributing to this gap. These findings imply that although income disparities do contribute to the gap, they are not the exclusive explanation for the observed differences in voting preferences. The racial composition of the population significantly influences voting disparities as well.