Newswise — According to a recent study conducted by researchers from Simon Fraser University, it has become crucial to take immediate actions to reduce methane emissions if we are to achieve global climate change objectives.
The 2015 Paris Agreement, an internationally binding treaty on climate change, highlights the importance of capping the average global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Moreover, it emphasizes the pursuit of efforts to limit global warming to just 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. To attain these goals, the focus must be on achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by or around 2050, alongside substantial reductions in methane and other greenhouse gas emissions. This highlights the significance of addressing methane emissions as part of our efforts to combat climate change.
Published in Nature's Communications Earth & Environment, the study indicates that taking prompt global-scale methane mitigation actions before 2030 could effectively restrict global warming levels, compared to the pre-industrial era, to below the critical 2°C threshold.
On the other hand, if the implementation of methane mitigation measures is delayed until 2040 or beyond, there would be an elevated risk of surpassing the 2°C limit above pre-industrial levels. This risk remains even if net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are achieved. The findings emphasize the urgency of addressing methane emissions promptly to ensure that global climate goals are within reach.
Methane stands as the second most significant contributor, after CO2, to the rise in global temperatures over the past two centuries. During the last four decades, human activities, such as fossil fuel extraction, livestock farming, agriculture, and waste, have been responsible for more than 60% of global methane emissions.
Kirsten Zickfeld, a distinguished professor of climate science, director of SFU's Climate Research Lab, and a member of the research team, emphasizes the urgency of taking action outlined in the Global Methane Pledge. Delays in implementing methane mitigation measures would lead to additional global warming each year, underscoring the importance of immediate and decisive action to address methane emissions.
Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, the lead author of the study and a former PhD student at SFU, stresses the significance of urgent methane mitigation in aligning with the temperature objective set forth in the Paris Agreement. Notably, the study also takes into account potential feedback loops within the Earth system.
Using an Earth system model that incorporates a coupled methane cycle, Zickfeld's research team delves into the critical distinction between immediate and delayed methane mitigation to achieve the 2°C threshold specified in the Paris Agreement. The study thoroughly examines the impact of feedback mechanisms within the carbon and methane cycles on the timing of methane mitigation efforts to meet the climate goal. Additionally, it explores the long-term climate consequences associated with postponing or neglecting methane mitigation throughout the current century—an aspect that had not been previously studied. The findings underscore the necessity of taking swift action in addressing methane emissions to safeguard against adverse climate impacts.
According to the research group's discoveries, each decade of postponing methane mitigation would lead to an extra peak global warming temperature of about 0.1°C.
These results underscore the urgent necessity for immediate reductions in human-caused methane emissions worldwide, in conjunction with rigorous CO2 mitigation efforts. Such actions increase the chances of achieving the critical objective of limiting the average global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
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