The analysis was led by scientists at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health and Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine. Results appear in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Policy.
“It is well established in scientific literature that nitrogen oxides contribute to respiratory and cardiovascular disease leading to disability and death,” says first author Lifang Hou, MD, PhD, associate professor of Preventive Medicine at Northwestern.
The researchers used the EPA’s Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Model (COBRA), a peer-reviewed tool, to estimate the costs and benefits of air quality. The model derives changes of ambient fine particulate matter (PM) concentrations related to NOx emissions then uses PM levels to estimate health and economic costs. The approach is similar to what the EPA uses for regulatory impact analysis.
The study outlines three scenarios (best, midpoint, and worse) for several specific health outcomes such as asthma exacerbations (154; 407; 660), as well as hospital admissions related to respiratory and cardiovascular disease (3; 9; 14) and days of work lost (687; 1,816; 2,947). For each category, the researchers report the related economic costs. Premature deaths accounted for the bulk of costs, ranging from $42 million when the researchers assumed a relatively lower risk and best-case scenario to $418 million for a higher risk assumption and worst-case scenario.
The effect of non-compliant VW emissions is almost certainly substantially worse than their estimates for several reasons, the study’s authors say. First, the analysis only accounts for a single year of added emissions when most of the vehicles have been on the road for multiple years; secondly, the researchers looked at emissions from the approximately 482,000 cars using 2.0-liter diesel engines, not additional non-compliant cars with 3.0-liter diesel engines, nor the approximately 800,000 additional diesel and gas vehicles with underreported carbon dioxide emissions; lately, they put aside the established link between NOx and ozone, a known health risk and greenhouse gas.
On June 28, VW agreed to pay as much $14.7 in a civil accord with most of the funds dedicated to taking the affected cars off the road or retrofitting them. From these funds, $2.7 billion is set aside for environmental cleanup and $2.0 billion, for initiatives promoting the use of zero-emission vehicles in the U.S. In addition, the company is facing criminal charges and civil penalties related to violations of the Clean Air Act.
“Emissions of nitrogen oxides from these vehicles were as much as 40 times higher than the EPA standard, adding up to 15,000 metric tons of these chemicals into the air we breath every year,” says Andrea Baccarelli, MD, PhD, Chair and Leon Hess Professor of Environmental Health Sciences at Columbia’s Mailman School. “It’s crucial that Americans and the government officials they serve know the extent of the damage done to public health and the economy.”
Co-authors include Kai Zhang at the University of Texas School of Public Health and Moira A. Luthin at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The authors declare no conflicts.
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Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health
Founded in 1922, Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health pursues an agenda of research, education, and service to address the critical and complex public health issues affecting New Yorkers, the nation and the world. The Mailman School is the third largest recipient of NIH grants among schools of public health. Its over 450 multi-disciplinary faculty members work in more than 100 countries around the world, addressing such issues as preventing infectious and chronic diseases, environmental health, maternal and child health, health policy, climate change & health, and public health preparedness. It is a leader in public health education with over 1,300 graduate students from more than 40 nations pursuing a variety of master’s and doctoral degree programs. The Mailman School is also home to numerous world-renowned research centers including ICAP (formerly the International Center for AIDS Care and Treatment Programs) and the Center for Infection and Immunity. For more information, please visit www.mailman.columbia.edu.
Contact: Tim Paul, Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, 212-305-2676/ [email protected]
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